用多重模型视角揭示焦虑抑郁的昼夜与每周波动规律。
Analyzing the Temporal Factors for Anxiety and Depression Symptoms with the Rashomon Perspective
- 通过多重相似性能模型分析心理数据,避免单一模型偏差。
- 发现年龄、性别、教育程度影响风险,早间和每周周期风险最高。
- 适合关注心理健康算法稳定性的研究者与临床筛查设计者。
本文提出一种新的建模视角,用于稳健解释焦虑与抑郁症状与人口统计及时间因素的关系。该视角基于Rashomon效应——多个模型具有相似预测性能但内部结构各异。传统选择单一最优模型可能掩盖数据中潜藏的其他解释路径。为此,我们基于大规模心理数据集(患者健康问卷-4,PHQ-4)应用随机森林结合部分依赖图,评估整个Rashomon集中模型的预测关系稳定性。结果表明,年龄、性别和教育水平对焦虑与抑郁风险存在一致的结构影响;关键发现是风险概率呈现显著的昼夜节律与周周期波动,高峰出现在清晨时段。本研究强调必须超越单一最佳模型,分析完整Rashomon集。研究指出,昼夜与周周期变化带来的变异性需被谨慎考虑,以实现心理筛查中的稳健推断。我们主张采用多模型意识方法,提升机器学习在心理健康研究中的稳定性与泛化能力。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
This paper introduces a new modeling perspective in the public mental health domain to provide a robust interpretation of the relations between anxiety and depression, and the demographic and temporal factors. This perspective particularly leverages the Rashomon Effect, where multiple models exhibit similar predictive performance but rely on diverse internal structures. Instead of considering these multiple models, choosing a single best model risks masking alternative narratives embedded in the data. To address this, we employed this perspective in the interpretation of a large-scale psychological dataset, specifically focusing on the Patient Health Questionnaire-4. We use a random forest model combined with partial dependence profiles to rigorously assess the robustness and stability of predictive relationships across the resulting Rashomon set, which consists of multiple models that exhibit similar predictive performance. Our findings confirm that demographic variables \texttt{age}, \texttt{sex}, and \texttt{education} lead to consistent structural shifts in anxiety and depression risk. Crucially, we identify significant temporal effects: risk probability demonstrates clear diurnal and circaseptan fluctuations, peaking during early morning hours. This work demonstrates the necessity of moving beyond the best model to analyze the entire Rashomon set. Our results highlight that the observed variability, particularly due to circadian and circaseptan rhythms, must be meticulously considered for robust interpretation in psychological screening. We advocate for a multiplicity-aware approach to enhance the stability and generalizability of ML-based conclusions in mental health research.
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