大模型仅凭姓名就能高精度推断种族,且比传统方法更准更公平。
Large Language Models Naively Recover Ethnicity from Individual Records
- 用大模型直接从姓名推断种族,无需额外训练数据。
- 在佛罗里达和北卡罗来纳州准确率达84.7%,超过BISG的68.2%。
- 适用于多国场景,尤其适合需本地部署的低成本应用。
本文展示大语言模型可在不使用额外训练数据的情况下,从姓名中推断种族,准确率超过贝叶斯改进姓氏地理编码(BISG),并实现美国以外地区的分类。基于佛罗里达和北卡罗来纳州选民档案的分层样本(含自报种族)显示,基于LLM的分类在平衡样本上最高达到84.7%准确率,优于BISG的68.2%。测试了六种模型,包括Gemini 3 Flash、GPT-4o及DeepSeek v3.2、GLM-4.7等开源模型。启用扩展推理可提升1-3个百分点准确率,加入党派注册等元数据时可达86.7%。该方法还降低了BISG固有的收入偏差——富裕地区的少数族裔常被误判为白人。进一步验证于黎巴嫩选民宗教派别(64.3%准确率)、印度议员选举区(99.2%)、印度土地记录中的种姓分类(74.0%)。在印度、乌干达、尼泊尔、亚美尼亚、智利和哥斯达黎加使用原始全量选民名册进行聚合验证,结果能复现已知人口分布,前提是命名习惯具有区分性。对于大规模应用,微调后的小型Transformer模型在生成标签基础上表现超越BISG,且支持本地部署,成本为零。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
I demonstrate that large language models can infer ethnicity from names with accuracy exceeding that of Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding (BISG) without additional training data, enabling inference outside the United States and to contextually appropriate classification categories. Using stratified samples from Florida and North Carolina voter files with self-reported race, LLM-based classification achieves up to 84.7% accuracy, outperforming BISG (68.2%) on balanced samples. I test six models including Gemini 3 Flash, GPT-4o, and open-source alternatives such as DeepSeek v3.2 and GLM-4.7. Enabling extended reasoning can improve accuracy by 1-3 percentage points, though effects vary across contexts; including metadata such as party registration reaches 86.7%. LLM classification also reduces the income bias inherent in BISG, where minorities in wealthier neighborhoods are systematically misclassified as White. I further validate using Lebanese voter registration with religious sect (64.3% accuracy), Indian MPs from reserved constituencies (99.2%), and Indian land records with caste classification (74.0%). Aggregate validation across India, Uganda, Nepal, Armenia, Chile, and Costa Rica using original full-count voter rolls demonstrates that the method recovers known population distributions where naming conventions are distinctive. For large-scale applications, small transformer models fine-tuned on LLM labels exceed BISG accuracy while enabling local deployment at no cost.
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