用神经半拉格朗日法提升天气预报精度与效率
Learning to Advect: A Neural Semi-Lagrangian Architecture for Weather Forecasting
- 将气象过程分解为平流、扩散和反应三块,分别建模
- 平流模块通过球面可微插值实现轨迹传输,提升长距离预测能力
- 适合关注物理机制建模与短期天气预报的科研人员
近期机器学习天气预报方法多采用单一大型网络隐式表示不同物理机制——平流(长程输送)、扩散混合、热力学过程和外力。其中平流因需全局交互或深层卷积层而计算成本高。为此,本文提出PARADIS,一种基于物理启发的全球气象预测模型,通过将网络行为施加归纳偏置,将运算分解为作用于潜在变量的平流、扩散和反应模块。平流部分采用神经半拉格朗日算子,基于轨迹进行球面上可微插值,实现潜在模式及其特征轨迹的端到端学习;扩散过程由深度可分离空间混合建模,局部源项与垂直相互作用则通过逐点通道交互处理,形成具有物理结构的算子分解。在ERA5基准上评估显示,PARADIS达到有竞争力的确定性预报性能,尤其在短时效预报中表现突出,同时在中长期滚动预报中保持更高频谱保真度与预报活跃度。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Recent machine-learning approaches to weather forecasting often employ a monolithic architecture in which distinct physical mechanisms-advection (long-range transport), diffusion-like mixing, thermodynamic processes, and forcing-are represented implicitly within a single large network. This is particularly problematic for advection, where long-range transport typically requires expensive global interaction mechanisms or deep stacks of local convolutional layers. To mitigate this, we present PARADIS, a physics-inspired global weather prediction model that enforces inductive biases on network behavior through a functional decomposition into advection, diffusion, and reaction blocks acting on latent variables. We implement advection through a Neural Semi-Lagrangian operator that performs trajectory-based transport via differentiable interpolation on the sphere, enabling end-to-end learning of both the latent modes to be transported and their characteristic trajectories. Diffusion-like processes are modeled by depthwise-separable spatial mixing, whereas local source terms and vertical interactions are handled via pointwise channel interactions, yielding a physically structured operator decomposition. Evaluated on ERA5 benchmarks, PARADIS achieves competitive deterministic forecast skill, with particularly strong short-lead performance, while preserving substantially better spectral fidelity and forecast activity during medium-range rollouts.
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