arXiv:2601.22259cs.LG2026-01被引 4

用分类法让表格模型直接做生存分析,无需训练即可超好用。

Tabular Foundation Models Can Do Survival Analysis

  • 把生存分析转为分时段二分类任务,自然处理删失数据。
  • 在48个真实数据集上超越经典与深度学习基线,平均表现更优。
  • 无需训练,适配现有表格大模型,特别适合医疗等场景。

尽管表格基础模型在分类和回归任务中表现卓越,但将其用于生存分析——即建模事件发生时间——仍具挑战性,主要因右删失问题:部分观察值在事件发生前就终止了。本文提出一种基于分类的框架,通过离散化事件时间,将静态和动态生存分析均转化为一系列二分类问题。删失样本在特定时间点被自然视为标签缺失的样本。该分类形式使现有表格基础模型(TFMs)可通过上下文学习实现生存分析,无需显式训练。与传统使用二分类器建模离散时间风险的方法不同,本方法直接建模累积失效概率,实验证明其对离散化分箱数更鲁棒,避免了各箱误差的乘积累积。我们证明,在标准删失假设下,最小化该二分类损失可随训练集规模增大而恢复真实生存概率。在48个真实世界数据集(43个静态、5个动态)上的评估表明,采用此框架的现成表格式基础模型在多个生存分析指标上平均优于经典及深度学习基线。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

While tabular foundation models have achieved remarkable success in classification and regression, adapting them to model time-to-event outcomes for survival analysis is non-trivial due to right-censoring, where data observations may end before the event of interest occurs. We utilize a classification-based framework that reformulates both static and dynamic survival analysis as a series of binary classification problems by discretizing event times. Censored observations are naturally handled as examples with missing labels at certain time points. This classification formulation enables existing tabular foundation models (TFMs) to perform survival analysis through in-context learning without explicit training. In contrast to classical approaches that use binary classifiers to model discrete-time hazards, our approach directly models cumulative failure probabilities, which we find empirically to be more robust to the number of discretization bins by avoiding multiplicative accumulation of per-bin errors. We prove that under standard censoring assumptions, minimizing our binary classification loss recovers the true survival probabilities as the training set size increases. We demonstrate through evaluation across 48 real-world datasets (43 static and 5 dynamic) that off-the-shelf TFMs with this classification formulation outperform classical and deep learning baselines on average over multiple survival metrics.

生存分析表格模型删失数据分类框架

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