短时训练+进化预测,让模型更准地预判长期趋势。
To See Far, Look Close: Evolutionary Forecasting for Long-term Time Series
- 用进化预测框架替代传统一步预测,避免远期干扰
- 短时训练模型在长周期预测上超越直接训练的模型
- 适合需要长期稳定预测的场景,如气候与金融
当前主流的直接预测(DF)范式要求模型在单次前向传播中完成整个未来时间序列的预测。虽然高效,但其输出与评估时程强耦合,导致每次目标时程变化都需耗时重训。本文发现一个反直觉现象:在短时程上训练的模型,结合我们提出的进化预测(EF)范式,显著优于直接在长时程上训练的模型。我们将其归因于缓解了DF中由远期未来带来的冲突梯度对局部动态学习的抑制。我们建立了EF作为统一生成框架,证明DF只是其退化特例。大量实验表明,单一EF模型在标准基准上超越任务专用的DF集成,并在极端外推中表现出稳健的渐近稳定性。本工作推动了长期时间序列预测的范式转变:从被动静态映射转向自主进化推理。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The prevailing Direct Forecasting (DF) paradigm dominates Long-term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF) by forcing models to predict the entire future horizon in a single forward pass. While efficient, this rigid coupling of output and evaluation horizons necessitates computationally prohibitive re-training for every target horizon. In this work, we uncover a counter-intuitive optimization anomaly: models trained on short horizons-when coupled with our proposed Evolutionary Forecasting (EF) paradigm-significantly outperform those trained directly on long horizons. We attribute this success to the mitigation of a fundamental optimization pathology inherent in DF, where conflicting gradients from distant futures cripple the learning of local dynamics. We establish EF as a unified generative framework, proving that DF is merely a degenerate special case of EF. Extensive experiments demonstrate that a singular EF model surpasses task-specific DF ensembles across standard benchmarks and exhibits robust asymptotic stability in extreme extrapolation. This work propels a paradigm shift in LTSF: moving from passive Static Mapping to autonomous Evolutionary Reasoning.
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