arXiv:2602.00080q-fin.STcs.LG2026-02被引 3

用新目标函数提升量化交易策略的泛化能力,减少过拟合风险。

The GT-Score: A Robust Objective Function for Reducing Overfitting in Data-Driven Trading Strategies

  • 设计复合目标函数GT-Score,融合收益、显著性、一致性与下行风险。
  • 在S&P 500股票数据上,使验证收益/训练收益比提升98%。
  • 适合追求稳健回测结果的量化研究者与实盘策略开发者。

过拟合是数据驱动金融建模中的关键挑战,机器学习系统常从历史价格中学习虚假模式,导致样本外表现不佳。本文提出GT-Score,一种集成收益、统计显著性、一致性与下行风险的复合目标函数,直接应对优化过程中的数据窥探问题及非正态收益分布下的统计推断不可靠问题。基于2010–2024年50只S&P 500成分股的历史数据,通过九次顺序时间分割的滚动验证与3种策略下15个随机种子的蒙特卡洛实验进行实证评估。滚动验证中,GT-Score使泛化比率(验证收益/训练收益)相对基线提升98%。蒙特卡洛样本外收益的配对检验显示,各目标函数间存在统计显著差异(与Sortino和Simple比较,p < 0.01),但效应量较小。结果表明,在目标函数中嵌入抗过拟合结构可显著提升量化研究回测的可靠性。可复现代码与处理后结果文件作为补充材料提供。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Overfitting remains a critical challenge in data-driven financial modeling, where machine learning (ML) systems learn spurious patterns in historical prices and fail out of sample and in deployment. This paper introduces the GT-Score, a composite objective function that integrates performance, statistical significance, consistency, and downside risk to guide optimization toward more robust trading strategies. This approach directly addresses critical pitfalls in quantitative strategy development, specifically data snooping during optimization and the unreliability of statistical inference under non-normal return distributions. Using historical stock data for 50 S&P 500 companies spanning 2010-2024, we conduct an empirical evaluation that includes walk-forward validation with nine sequential time splits and a Monte Carlo study with 15 random seeds across three trading strategies. In walk-forward validation, GT-Score improves the generalization ratio (validation return divided by training return) by 98% relative to baseline objective functions. Paired statistical tests on Monte Carlo out-of-sample returns indicate statistically detectable differences between objective functions (p < 0.01 for comparisons with Sortino and Simple), with small effect sizes. These results suggest that embedding an anti-overfitting structure into the objective can improve the reliability of backtests in quantitative research. Reproducible code and processed result files are provided as supplementary materials.

量化交易过拟合目标函数回测

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