arXiv:2602.00654cs.LG2026-02被引 4

让时间序列模型学会识别不同变量的不同周期,提升预测精度。

PHAT: Modeling Period Heterogeneity for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting

  • 构建周期桶张量,按周期相似性分组变量并限制跨组干扰。
  • 引入正负注意力机制,同时捕捉周期对齐与偏离的依赖关系。
  • 适合处理周期不一致的真实多变量时序数据,如电力、交通等。

现有多变量时间序列预测模型虽在建模周期性方面取得进展,但普遍忽视真实数据中变量具有不同且动态变化周期的现象。为有效捕捉这种周期异质性,我们提出PHAT(周期异质性感知变压器)。具体地,PHAT将多变量输入组织成三维“周期桶”张量,维度分别对应周期相似的变量组、相位对齐的时间步以及周期内的偏移量。通过限制桶内交互并掩码跨桶连接,有效避免周期不一致带来的干扰。我们还提出正负注意力机制,从周期对齐和周期偏差两个角度捕捉周期依赖。此外,周期对齐注意力分数被分解为正负成分,并引入编码周期先验的调制项,约束注意力更忠实反映底层周期趋势。数学分析支持该性质。我们在14个真实数据集上对PHAT进行全面评估,对比18个基线方法,结果表明其显著优于现有方法,展现出极强的预测性能。代码已开源于GitHub。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

While existing multivariate time series forecasting models have advanced significantly in modeling periodicity, they largely neglect the periodic heterogeneity common in real-world data, where variables exhibit distinct and dynamically changing periods. To effectively capture this periodic heterogeneity, we propose PHAT (Period Heterogeneity-Aware Transformer). Specifically, PHAT arranges multivariate inputs into a three-dimensional "periodic bucket" tensor, where the dimensions correspond to variable group characteristics with similar periodicity, time steps aligned by phase, and offsets within the period. By restricting interactions within buckets and masking cross-bucket connections, PHAT effectively avoids interference from inconsistent periods. We also propose a positive-negative attention mechanism, which captures periodic dependencies from two perspectives: periodic alignment and periodic deviation. Additionally, the periodic alignment attention scores are decomposed into positive and negative components, with a modulation term encoding periodic priors. This modulation constrains the attention mechanism to more faithfully reflect the underlying periodic trends. A mathematical explanation is provided to support this property. We evaluate PHAT comprehensively on 14 real-world datasets against 18 baselines, and the results show that it significantly outperforms existing methods, achieving highly competitive forecasting performance. Our sources is available at GitHub.

时间序列周期建模Transformer多变量预测

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