用变分自编码与双重机器学习分析矿业企业股权均衡如何抑制漂绿行为。
A Novel VAE-DML Fusion Framework for Causal Analysis of Greenwashing in the Mining Industry
- 结合VAE与DML构建反事实模型，解决内生性问题。
- 股权均衡显著抑制漂绿，西部、上游及高环境敏感行业效果更明显。
- 通过缓解业绩压力、稳定高管团队和强化媒体监督三路径起作用。
在全球绿色转型与“双碳”目标背景下，矿业产业链企业是资源消耗与环境影响的关键主体，其环境表现直接影响区域生态安全，关乎国家资源战略与绿色转型成效。确保其环境信息披露的真实性与可靠性，已成为可持续发展与国家战略的迫切课题。本文从公司治理视角出发，以股权均衡为基本治理机制，探究其对矿业企业漂绿行为的抑制作用及其内在路径。方法上，创新性地采用变分自编码器（VAE）与双重机器学习（DML）模型构建反事实情景，有效缓解内生性问题，精准识别股权均衡与漂绿之间的因果关系。研究发现：第一，股权均衡与企业漂绿存在显著负向因果关系，证实其实际治理效能；第二，该抑制效应呈现明显异质性，在西部地区、产业链上游环节以及环境敏感度高的行业中更为突出；第三，治理效应具有明确的时间动态特征，当前期影响最强，随后呈递减但统计显著的滞后效应，最终形成稳定的长期累积影响；第四，机制分析表明，股权均衡通过缓解管理层绩效压力、增强高管团队稳定性、强化媒体监督三个渠道抑制漂绿行为。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Against the backdrop of the global green transition and "dual carbon" goals, mining industry chain enterprises are pivotal entities in terms of resource consumption and environmental impact. Their environmental performance directly affects regional ecological security and is closely tied to national resource strategies and green transformation outcomes. Ensuring the authenticity and reliability of their environmental disclosure is thus a core and urgent issue for sustainable development and national strategic objectives.From a corporate governance perspective, this study examines equity balance as a fundamental governance mechanism, investigating its inhibitory effect on greenwashing behavior among these enterprises and the underlying pathways involved. Methodologically, the paper innovatively employs a Variational Autoencoder (VAE) and a Double Machine Learning (DML) model to construct counterfactual scenarios, mitigating endogeneity concerns and precisely identifying the causal relationship between equity balance and greenwashing. The findings indicate, first, a significant negative causal relationship between equity balance and corporate greenwashing, confirming its substantive governance effect. Second, this inhibitory effect exhibits notable heterogeneity, manifesting more strongly in western regions, upstream segments of the industrial chain, and industries with high environmental sensitivity. Third, the governance effect demonstrates clear temporal dynamics, with the strongest impact occurring in the current period, followed by a diminishing yet statistically significant lagged effect, and ultimately a stable long-term cumulative influence. Finally, mechanism analysis reveals that equity balance operates through three distinct channels to curb greenwashing: alleviating management performance pressure, enhancing the stability of the executive team, and intensifying media scrutiny.
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