arXiv:2602.00948physics.soc-phcs.AI2026-02被引 2

用生态演化视角模拟多智能体金融策略的动态竞争与适应。

FinEvo: From Isolated Backtests to Ecological Market Games for Multi-Agent Financial Strategy Evolution

  • 将交易策略视为可互动学习的智能体,构建市场生态游戏框架。
  • 真实新闻与外部冲击下,策略会主导、崩溃或结盟,揭示静态回测无法发现的模式。
  • 适合研究策略韧性、监管政策影响及金融市场演化机制的学者。

传统金融策略评估依赖静态环境中的孤立回测,独立评价每种策略,忽视策略间的关联与互动,无法解释其在演化市场中的存亡原因。本文提出FinEvo,一种基于生态视角的多智能体金融策略演化框架。个体层面,异构的机器学习交易者(规则基、深度学习、强化学习、大语言模型)基于历史价格与外部新闻信号进行自适应。群体层面,通过选择、创新与环境扰动三种机制驱动策略分布演化,捕捉真实市场的动态力量。该双层适应机制连接演化博弈论与现代学习动态,提供分析战略行为的原理性环境。实验表明,引入外部冲击与真实新闻流后,系统兼具可复现性与表达力:策略可能主导、崩溃或形成联盟,这些模式在静态回测中不可见。通过将策略评估重构为生态游戏形式,FinEvo为分析多智能体金融市场的鲁棒性、适应性与涌现动态提供了统一的机制级协议,并可用于探索宏观经济政策与金融监管对价格演进与均衡的影响。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Conventional financial strategy evaluation relies on isolated backtests in static environments. Such evaluations assess each policy independently, overlook correlations and interactions, and fail to explain why strategies ultimately persist or vanish in evolving markets. We shift to an ecological perspective, where trading strategies are modeled as adaptive agents that interact and learn within a shared market. Instead of proposing a new strategy, we present FinEvo, an ecological game formalism for studying the evolutionary dynamics of multi-agent financial strategies. At the individual level, heterogeneous ML-based traders-rule-based, deep learning, reinforcement learning, and large language model (LLM) agents-adapt using signals such as historical prices and external news. At the population level, strategy distributions evolve through three designed mechanisms-selection, innovation, and environmental perturbation-capturing the dynamic forces of real markets. Together, these two layers of adaptation link evolutionary game theory with modern learning dynamics, providing a principled environment for studying strategic behavior. Experiments with external shocks and real-world news streams show that FinEvo is both stable for reproducibility and expressive in revealing context-dependent outcomes. Strategies may dominate, collapse, or form coalitions depending on their competitors-patterns invisible to static backtests. By reframing strategy evaluation as an ecological game formalism, FinEvo provides a unified, mechanism-level protocol for analyzing robustness, adaptation, and emergent dynamics in multi-agent financial markets, and may offer a means to explore the potential impact of macroeconomic policies and financial regulations on price evolution and equilibrium.

多智能体金融演化生态建模策略评估

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