用混合密度网络高效量化科学问题中的多模态不确定性

Scientific machine learning (SciML) increasingly requires models that capture multimodal conditional uncertainty arising from ill-posed inverse problems, multistability, and chaotic dynamics. While recent work has favored highly expressive implicit generative models such as diffusion and flow-based methods, these approaches are often data-hungry, computationally costly, and misaligned with the structured solution spaces frequently found in scientific problems. We demonstrate that Mixture Density Networks (MDNs) provide a principled yet largely overlooked alternative for multimodal uncertainty quantification in SciML. As explicit parametric density estimators, MDNs impose an inductive bias tailored to low-dimensional, multimodal physics, enabling direct global allocation of probability mass across distinct solution branches. This structure delivers strong data efficiency, allowing reliable recovery of separated modes in regimes where scientific data is scarce. We formalize these insights through a unified probabilistic framework contrasting explicit and implicit distribution networks, and demonstrate empirically that MDNs achieve superior generalization, interpretability, and sample efficiency across a range of inverse, multistable, and chaotic scientific regression tasks.