arXiv:2602.01157cs.LGcs.AI2026-02

对比主流深度时序模型在澳洲电力市场的多时段电价预测表现,发现其在极端波动下普遍失效。

Deep Time-Series Models Meet Volatility: Multi-Horizon Electricity Price Forecasting in the Australian National Electricity Market

  • 采用直接多步预测框架,系统评估先进时序模型在五区电力市场表现
  • 所有模型在夜间爬坡期误差最大,负电价时段相对误差飙升
  • 揭示现有模型对市场突变敏感,需引入波动感知机制和更丰富特征

准确的电力价格预测(EPF)在具有极端波动性、频繁价格飙升和快速结构变化的市场中日益困难。深度学习(DL)因其高预测精度而被广泛应用于EPF。近期,最先进(SOTA)的深度时序模型在通用预测任务中表现优异,但在高度波动的电力市场中的有效性仍缺乏研究。此外,现有研究很少评估模型精度在日内不同时段的变化,导致对模型在不同市场条件下的敏感性认识不足。为此,本文提出一个EPF框架,采用直接多步预测方法,在日前和两日前设定下系统评估SOTA深度时序模型。我们在澳大利亚全国电力市场全部五个区域使用当前高波动性数据进行了全面实证研究。结果表明,时序基准预期与真实市场波动下的表现存在明显差距:近期深度时序模型往往无法超越标准深度学习基线。所有模型在极端和负电价条件下均出现显著性能下降,而深度学习基线仍保持竞争力。日内性能分析进一步显示,所有评估模型均持续受制于当前市场状况:绝对误差在晚间爬坡期达到峰值,相对误差在中午负电价期急剧上升,方向准确性在价格方向突然变化时大幅下降。这些发现强调了发展波动感知建模策略和更丰富特征表示的必要性,以推动EPF进步。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate electricity price forecasting (EPF) is increasingly difficult in markets characterised by extreme volatility, frequent price spikes, and rapid structural shifts. Deep learning (DL) has been increasingly adopted in EPF due to its ability to achieve high forecasting accuracy. Recently, state-of-the-art (SOTA) deep time-series models have demonstrated promising performance across general forecasting tasks. Yet, their effectiveness in highly volatile electricity markets remains underexplored. Moreover, existing EPF studies rarely assess how model accuracy varies across intraday periods, leaving model sensitivity to market conditions unexplored. To address these gaps, this paper proposes an EPF framework that systematically evaluates SOTA deep time-series models using a direct multi-horizon forecasting approach across day-ahead and two-day-ahead settings. We conduct a comprehensive empirical study across all five regions of the Australian National Electricity Market using contemporary, high-volatility data. The results reveal a clear gap between time-series benchmark expectations and observed performance under real-world price volatility: recent deep time-series models often fail to surpass standard DL baselines. All models experience substantial degradation under extreme and negative prices, yet DL baselines often remain competitive. Intraday performance analysis further reveals that all evaluated models are consistently vulnerable to prevailing market conditions, where absolute errors peak during evening ramps, relative errors escalate during midday negative-price periods, and directional accuracy deteriorates sharply during abrupt shifts in price direction. These findings emphasise the need for volatility-aware modelling strategies and richer feature representations to advance EPF.

电价预测时序建模电力市场波动性

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