arXiv:2602.01567cs.SIcs.AI2026-02中稿 · WWW The Web Confer…被引 1

用社交交换理论建模谣言传播中的用户互动,提升预测精度。

DREAMS: A Social Exchange Theory-Informed Modeling of Misinformation Engagement on Social Media

  • 将用户行为建模为动态社会交换过程,捕捉平台上下文影响。
  • 跨7个平台237万条数据测试,预测误差仅19.25%,比基线提升43.6%。
  • 揭示跨平台一致的社交规律,适合研究网络谣言与社会行为者。

社交媒体互动预测是计算社会科学的核心挑战,尤其在理解用户如何与虚假信息互动方面。现有方法常将互动视为同质的时间序列信号,忽视了塑造虚假信息传播的异质性社交机制和平台设计。本文提出:‘神经架构能否仅从行为数据中发现社交交换原则?’ 我们引入 extsc{Dreams}(解耦表示与情境自适应建模的社会媒体虚假信息互动框架),基于社交交换理论,将虚假信息互动建模为动态社会交换过程。不同于静态结果假设, extsc{Dreams} 将其视为序列到序列的适应问题,每项行为反映用户付出与社交回报之间随时间演变的博弈,受平台上下文调节。模型融合自适应机制,学习情绪与情境信号在时间和跨平台间的传播。在覆盖7个平台、2021至2025年间237万条帖子的跨平台数据集上, extsc{Dreams} 实现了最先进的预测性能,平均绝对百分比误差达19.25%,相比最强基线提升43.6%。除预测优势外,模型还揭示了与社交交换原理一致的跨平台模式,表明整合行为理论可增强对线上虚假信息互动的实证建模。源代码已公开于:https://github.com/ltian678/DREAMS。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Social media engagement prediction is a central challenge in computational social science, particularly for understanding how users interact with misinformation. Existing approaches often treat engagement as a homogeneous time-series signal, overlooking the heterogeneous social mechanisms and platform designs that shape how misinformation spreads. In this work, we ask: ``Can neural architectures discover social exchange principles from behavioral data alone?'' We introduce \textsc{Dreams} (\underline{D}isentangled \underline{R}epresentations and \underline{E}pisodic \underline{A}daptive \underline{M}odeling for \underline{S}ocial media misinformation engagements), a social exchange theory-guided framework that models misinformation engagement as a dynamic process of social exchange. Rather than treating engagement as a static outcome, \textsc{Dreams} models it as a sequence-to-sequence adaptation problem, where each action reflects an evolving negotiation between user effort and social reward conditioned by platform context. It integrates adaptive mechanisms to learn how emotional and contextual signals propagate through time and across platforms. On a cross-platform dataset spanning $7$ platforms and 2.37M posts collected between 2021 and 2025, \textsc{Dreams} achieves state-of-the-art performance in predicting misinformation engagements, reaching a mean absolute percentage error of $19.25$\%. This is a $43.6$\% improvement over the strongest baseline. Beyond predictive gains, the model reveals consistent cross-platform patterns that align with social exchange principles, suggesting that integrating behavioral theory can enhance empirical modeling of online misinformation engagement. The source code is available at: https://github.com/ltian678/DREAMS.

虚假信息社交网络行为建模

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