arXiv:2602.01614cs.LGcs.AI2026-02被引 2

首个农业生态系统碳氮通量时空预测基准数据集,助力气候模型精准化。

AgroFlux: A Spatial-Temporal Benchmark for Carbon and Nitrogen Flux Prediction in Agricultural Ecosystems

  • 融合物理模型与真实观测构建时空数据集
  • 验证了多种深度学习模型在碳氮通量预测中的表现
  • 支持迁移学习,提升模型对真实数据的泛化能力

农业生态系统受人类活动强烈影响,占全球温室气体排放的四分之一,在缓解气候变化和保障环境可持续性中至关重要。然而,无法测量便无法管理。准确量化农业生态系统中碳、养分与水相互作用的库与通量,是理解温室气体驱动机制并制定有效减排策略的关键。传统方法如土壤采样、过程模型和黑箱机器学习模型面临数据稀疏、时空异质性强以及复杂地下生物地球化学过程等挑战。开发可信的新型人工智能驱动模型亟需可被AI使用的基准数据集和标准化流程,但目前尚无此类资源。本文首次提出一个时空农业生态系统温室气体排放基准数据集,整合了基于Ecosys和DayCent的物理模型模拟数据与涡度相关通量塔及受控环境设施的真实观测数据。我们评估了多种序列深度学习模型在碳氮通量预测中的表现,包括基于LSTM、时序卷积网络和Transformer的模型,并探索了利用模拟数据进行迁移学习以提升模型在真实观测上的泛化能力。本研究提供的数据集与评估框架将推动更精确、可扩展的智能农业生态系统模型发展,深化对生态系统-气候相互作用的理解。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Agroecosystem, which heavily influenced by human actions and accounts for a quarter of global greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs), plays a crucial role in mitigating global climate change and securing environmental sustainability. However, we can't manage what we can't measure. Accurately quantifying the pools and fluxes in the carbon, nutrient, and water nexus of the agroecosystem is therefore essential for understanding the underlying drivers of GHG and developing effective mitigation strategies. Conventional approaches like soil sampling, process-based models, and black-box machine learning models are facing challenges such as data sparsity, high spatiotemporal heterogeneity, and complex subsurface biogeochemical and physical processes. Developing new trustworthy approaches such as AI-empowered models, will require the AI-ready benchmark dataset and outlined protocols, which unfortunately do not exist. In this work, we introduce a first-of-its-kind spatial-temporal agroecosystem GHG benchmark dataset that integrates physics-based model simulations from Ecosys and DayCent with real-world observations from eddy covariance flux towers and controlled-environment facilities. We evaluate the performance of various sequential deep learning models on carbon and nitrogen flux prediction, including LSTM-based models, temporal CNN-based model, and Transformer-based models. Furthermore, we explored transfer learning to leverage simulated data to improve the generalization of deep learning models on real-world observations. Our benchmark dataset and evaluation framework contribute to the development of more accurate and scalable AI-driven agroecosystem models, advancing our understanding of ecosystem-climate interactions.

农业生态碳氮通量时空建模深度学习

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