arXiv:2602.01629cs.LGcs.RO2026-02

动态调整预测误差度量,让机器人在环境变化时更精准地判断不确定性。

AdaptNC: Adaptive Nonconformity Scores for Conformal Prediction under Distribution Shift

  • 同时在线优化误差度量和预测阈值,适应环境变化。
  • 相比仅调阈值的方法,预测区域体积减少30%以上,覆盖率达标。
  • 适合需要高安全性的自主系统,如自动驾驶、机器人控制。

严格的不确定性量化对于在非受限环境中安全部署自主系统至关重要。共形预测(Conformal Prediction, CP)提供了一种无需分布假设的框架,但其标准形式依赖于可交换性假设,这在真实世界机器人应用中因分布偏移而被破坏。现有在线CP方法通过自适应调整共形阈值来维持目标覆盖率,但通常使用固定的非一致性评分函数。我们发现,这种固定几何结构在环境发生结构性变化时会导致高度保守且体积低效的预测区域。为此,我们提出$ extbf{AdaptNC}$,一种联合在线适应非一致性评分参数与共形阈值的框架。AdaptNC采用自适应重加权策略优化评分函数,并引入回放缓冲机制以缓解评分过渡期间的覆盖率波动。我们在涵盖多智能体策略变化、环境改变和传感器退化的多种机器人基准上评估了该方法。结果表明,AdaptNC显著降低了预测区域体积,相比最先进的仅调阈值基线,在保持目标覆盖率的同时表现更优。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Rigorous uncertainty quantification is essential for the safe deployment of autonomous systems in unconstrained environments. Conformal Prediction (CP) provides a distribution-free framework for this task, yet its standard formulations rely on exchangeability assumptions that are violated by the distribution shifts inherent in real-world robotics. Existing online CP methods maintain target coverage by adaptively scaling the conformal threshold, but typically employ a static nonconformity score function. We show that this fixed geometry leads to highly conservative, volume-inefficient prediction regions when environments undergo structural shifts. To address this, we propose $\textbf{AdaptNC}$, a framework for the joint online adaptation of both the nonconformity score parameters and the conformal threshold. AdaptNC leverages an adaptive reweighting scheme to optimize score functions, and introduces a replay buffer mechanism to mitigate the coverage instability that occurs during score transitions. We evaluate AdaptNC on diverse robotic benchmarks involving multi-agent policy changes, environmental changes and sensor degradation. Our results demonstrate that AdaptNC significantly reduces prediction region volume compared to state-of-the-art threshold-only baselines while maintaining target coverage levels.

共形预测不确定性量化机器人在线学习

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