arXiv:2602.02096physics.ao-phcs.AI2026-02

用小波分解建模极端降水,提升预报精度与细节保真度。

WADEPre: A Wavelet-based Decomposition Model for Extreme Precipitation Nowcasting with Multi-Scale Learning

  • 将降水建模转入小波域,分离低频稳定运动与高频随机对流
  • 在SEVIR和上海雷达数据集上显著提升极端降水阈值捕捉能力
  • 适合需要高精度短临预报的气象与防灾领域应用

降水强度具有重尾分布特性,导致传统像素级损失优化模型易产生回归均值偏差,模糊极端值。现有基于傅里叶的方法缺乏空间局部性,难以解析瞬态对流胞。为此,我们提出WADEPre,一种基于小波分解的极端降水短临预报模型,将建模转换至小波域。通过离散小波变换实现显式分解,采用双分支架构:近似网络建模低频稳定平流,分离确定性趋势与统计偏差;细节网络捕捉高频随机对流,解析瞬态奇点并保持边界锐利。随后,重构模块动态融合多尺度分量生成高保真预报。为缓解优化不稳定性,引入多尺度课程学习策略,逐步从粗粒度到细粒度施加监督。在SEVIR与上海雷达数据集上的大量实验表明,WADEPre达到当前最优性能,在捕捉极端阈值与保持结构保真度方面均有显著提升。代码已开源:https://github.com/sonderlau/WADEPre。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The heavy-tailed nature of precipitation intensity impedes precise precipitation nowcasting. Standard models that optimize pixel-wise losses are prone to regression-to-the-mean bias, which blurs extreme values. Existing Fourier-based methods also lack the spatial localization needed to resolve transient convective cells. To overcome these intrinsic limitations, we propose WADEPre, a wavelet-based decomposition model for extreme precipitation that transitions the modeling into the wavelet domain. By leveraging the Discrete Wavelet Transform for explicit decomposition, WADEPre employs a dual-branch architecture: an Approximation Network to model stable, low-frequency advection, isolating deterministic trends from statistical bias, and a spatially localized Detail Network to capture high-frequency stochastic convection, resolving transient singularities and preserving sharp boundaries. A subsequent Refiner module then dynamically reconstructs these decoupled multi-scale components into the final high-fidelity forecast. To address optimization instability, we introduce a multi-scale curriculum learning strategy that progressively shifts supervision from coarse scales to fine-grained details. Extensive experiments on the SEVIR and Shanghai Radar datasets demonstrate that WADEPre achieves state-of-the-art performance, yielding significant improvements in capturing extreme thresholds and maintaining structural fidelity. Our code is available at https://github.com/sonderlau/WADEPre.

降水预报小波分析多尺度建模

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。