首个针对北极海冰180天预报的深度学习基准,提升长期预测能力。
IceBench-S2S: A Benchmark of Deep Learning for Challenging Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Daily Arctic Sea Ice Forecasting in Deep Latent Space
- 将每日海冰数据压缩至深层潜在空间,再用模型预测连续180天变化
- 在180天预报周期上实现比传统方法更优的准确性与稳定性
- 适合极地环境监测、航运规划等需要长期海冰预测的应用
北极海冰在调节地球气候系统中起关键作用,显著影响极地生态稳定和沿海人类活动。近年来,人工智能的发展推动了高性能泛北极海冰预测系统的建立,数据驱动方法在精度、计算效率和预测时效方面展现出超越传统物理模型的巨大潜力。尽管深度学习(DL)模型取得进展,但其有效预测时效仍局限于日尺度的次季节范围及最多六个月的月平均值,严重制约其在实际应用中的部署,例如北极航运日常规划和科学考察。将每日预报从次季节扩展至季节尺度(S2S)对业务应用具有重要意义。为弥合当前深度学习模型预测时效与关键的日尺度季节预报需求之间的差距,本文提出IceBench-S2S——首个评估深度学习方法应对连续180天北极海冰浓度预测挑战的综合性基准。该基准提出一种通用框架:首先将每日海冰数据的空间特征压缩至深层潜在空间,再通过深度学习预测主干对时间拼接的深层特征建模,以预测季节尺度上的海冰变化。IceBench-S2S提供统一的训练与评估流程,支持不同模型主干的比较,并为极地环境监测任务中的模型选择提供实用指导。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Arctic sea ice plays a critical role in regulating Earth's climate system, significantly influencing polar ecological stability and human activities in coastal regions. Recent advances in artificial intelligence have facilitated the development of skillful pan-Arctic sea ice forecasting systems, where data-driven approaches showcase tremendous potential to outperform conventional physics-based numerical models in terms of accuracy, computational efficiency and forecasting lead times. Despite the latest progress made by deep learning (DL) forecasting models, most of their skillful forecasting lead times are confined to daily subseasonal scale and monthly averaged values for up to six months, which drastically hinders their deployment for real-world applications, e.g., maritime routine planning for Arctic transportation and scientific investigation. Extending daily forecasts from subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) scale is scientifically crucial for operational applications. To bridge the gap between the forecasting lead time of current DL models and the significant daily S2S scale, we introduce IceBench-S2S, the first comprehensive benchmark for evaluating DL approaches in mitigating the challenge of forecasting Arctic sea ice concentration in successive 180-day periods. It proposes a generalized framework that first compresses spatial features of daily sea ice data into a deep latent space. The temporally concatenated deep features are subsequently modeled by DL-based forecasting backbones to predict the sea ice variation at S2S scale. IceBench-S2S provides a unified training and evaluation pipeline for different backbones, along with practical guidance for model selection in polar environmental monitoring tasks.
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