arXiv:2602.03164cs.LGcs.AI2026-02被引 9

用记忆驱动时间序列预测,让模型像人一样总结经验、持续进化。

MemCast: Memory-Driven Time Series Forecasting with Experience-Conditioned Reasoning

  • 将预测结果归纳为分层记忆:历史模式、推理智慧、通用规律
  • 在推理时用记忆引导思考,选择更优路径,通过规律迭代优化
  • 支持持续学习,动态调整记忆置信度,不泄露测试数据分布

时间序列预测在诸多实际决策场景中至关重要。近年来基于大语言模型的预测方法取得显著进展,但普遍缺乏显式的经验积累与持续演化能力。本文提出 MemCast,一种学习记忆的框架,将时间序列预测重构为经验驱动的推理任务。具体地,从训练数据中提炼经验,构建层次化记忆:将预测结果归纳为历史模式,将推理轨迹提炼为推理智慧,将提取的时间特征归纳为通用规律。推理阶段,利用历史模式引导推理过程,借助推理智慧筛选更优轨迹,以通用规律作为反思迭代的标准。此外,设计动态置信度自适应策略,实现记忆条目的持续更新,避免泄露测试集分布。在多个数据集上的大量实验表明,MemCast 始终优于现有方法,验证了该框架的有效性。代码已开源:https://github.com/Xiaoyu-Tao/MemCast-TS。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Time series forecasting (TSF) plays a critical role in decision-making for many real-world applications. Recently, large language model (LLM)- based forecasters have made promising advancements. Despite their effectiveness, existing methods often lack explicit experience accumulation and continual evolution. In this work, we propose MemCast, a learning-to-memory framework that reformulates TSF as an experience-conditioned reasoning task. Specifically, we learn experience from the training set and organize it into a hierarchical memory. This is achieved by summarizing prediction results into historical patterns, distilling inference trajectories into reasoning wisdom, and inducing extracted temporal features into general laws. Furthermore, during inference, we leverage historical patterns to guide the reasoning process and utilize reasoning wisdom to select better trajectories, while general laws serve as criteria for reflective iteration. Additionally, to enable continual evolution, we design a dynamic confidence adaptation strategy that updates the confidence of individual entries without leaking the test set distribution. Extensive experiments on multiple datasets demonstrate that MemCast consistently outperforms previous methods, validating the effectiveness of our approach. Our code is available at https://github.com/Xiaoyu-Tao/MemCast-TS.

时间序列记忆机制大模型持续学习

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