用图模型筛选相关性低的资产,提升投资组合稳定性。
A Novel approach to portfolio construction
- 通过稀疏图模型捕捉资产间线性与非线性关系,识别条件独立或负相关的资产子集。
- 在1990-2025年美股、全球股指和外汇数据上,实现更低波动率和更优风险调整收益。
- 适合关注高维投资组合中降噪与分散化的真实场景投资者。
本文提出一种基于机器学习的资产选择与组合构建框架——最佳路径算法稀疏图模型(BPASGM)。该方法扩展了最佳路径算法(BPA),将大量金融资产间的线性与非线性依赖关系映射为满足结构马尔可夫性质的稀疏图模型。在此基础上,BPASGM执行依赖驱动的筛选,剔除正相关或冗余连接的资产,分离出条件独立或负相关的子集,旨在增强分散化并降低高维组合设定下的估计误差。随后在选定子集上使用标准均值-方差技术进行优化。BPASGM不追求已知总体参数下的理论最优均值-方差解,而是提升有限样本下实际表现,因样本均值-方差组合对估计误差高度敏感。蒙特卡洛模拟显示,基于BPASGM的组合具备更稳定的风险收益特征、更低的实际波动率及更优的风险调整表现。对1990–2025年间美国股票、全球股票指数及外汇汇率的实证结果验证了上述发现,并显著降低了组合证券数量。整体而言,BPASGM提供了一个统计基础坚实且计算高效的框架,将稀疏图建模与组合理论结合,实现依赖感知的资产选择。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
This paper proposes a machine learning-based framework for asset selection and portfolio construction, termed the Best-Path Algorithm Sparse Graphical Model (BPASGM). The method extends the Best-Path Algorithm (BPA) by mapping linear and non-linear dependencies among a large set of financial assets into a sparse graphical model satisfying a structural Markov property. Based on this representation, BPASGM performs a dependence-driven screening that removes positively or redundantly connected assets, isolating subsets that are conditionally independent or negatively correlated. This step is designed to enhance diversification and reduce estimation error in high-dimensional portfolio settings. Portfolio optimization is then conducted on the selected subset using standard mean-variance techniques. BPASGM does not aim to improve the theoretical mean-variance optimum under known population parameters, but rather to enhance realized performance in finite samples, where sample-based Markowitz portfolios are highly sensitive to estimation error. Monte Carlo simulations show that BPASGM-based portfolios achieve more stable risk-return profiles, lower realized volatility, and superior risk-adjusted performance compared to standard mean-variance portfolios. Empirical results for U.S. equities, global stock indices, and foreign exchange rates over 1990-2025 confirm these findings and demonstrate a substantial reduction in portfolio cardinality. Overall, BPASGM offers a statistically grounded and computationally efficient framework that integrates sparse graphical modeling with portfolio theory for dependence-aware asset selection.
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