用贝叶斯方法优化预测集形状,提升多峰分布下的效率与可靠性。
Bayesian Conformal Prediction as a Decision Risk Problem
- 将置信预测建模为风险优化问题,生成更紧凑的高后验密度预测集。
- 多峰场景下平均预测集大小从4.82降至2.07,仍满足目标覆盖率。
- 适用于模型有误设时仍需可靠覆盖的决策场景,如医疗或金融风控。
我们提出贝叶斯保形预测(BCP),将贝叶斯后验预测分布与基于PAC的保形风险控制结合,生成具有有限样本覆盖保证的预测集。传统分位数阈值方法使用固定阈值,通常产生连通预测集,但在后验分布多峰时可能覆盖低密度区域,导致效率低下。BCP的核心贡献是将保形预测建模为决策-风险优化问题,将标准固定分位数集扩展为优化的最高后验密度(HPD)预测集,允许不连通,集中于分离的高密度区域。通过类似PAC的风险约束确保有效性,即使贝叶斯模型存在误设也能提供覆盖率控制。在标准嵌套阈值设置中,BCP恢复最小可行阈值,与现有PAC方法一致。在多峰实验中,HPD结构显著提升效率,平均预测集大小由4.82降至2.07,同时满足目标PAC通过率。在回归、分类及分布偏移实验中,BCP在模型误设下仍保持可靠覆盖率,而贝叶斯可信区间则可能无法维持名义覆盖率。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
We propose Bayesian Conformal Prediction (BCP), a framework that combines Bayesian posterior predictive distributions with PAC-style conformal risk control to produce prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees. Standard quantile-threshold conformal methods often construct prediction sets using a single fixed threshold, which typically yields connected prediction sets. While valid, such sets can be inefficient when the posterior predictive distribution is multimodal, since they may span low-density regions between separated modes. The main contribution of BCP is to formulate conformal prediction as a decision-risk optimisation problem, extending standard fixed quantile-threshold sets to optimised highest posterior density (HPD) prediction sets. These sets can be disjoint, concentrating probability mass on separated high-density regions. Validity is enforced using a PAC-style risk constraint, which provides coverage control even when the Bayesian model is misspecified. In standard nested-threshold settings, BCP recovers the smallest feasible threshold, aligning with existing PAC-based approaches. In the multimodal experiment, HPD geometry substantially improves efficiency, reducing mean prediction set size from $4.82$ to $2.07$ while satisfying the target PAC pass rate. Across regression, classification, and distribution-shift experiments, BCP maintains reliable coverage under model misspecification, whereas Bayesian credible intervals can fail to preserve nominal coverage.
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