一个无需微调的气象生成模型,能统一处理多种天气预测任务。
WIND: Weather Inverse Diffusion for Zero-Shot Atmospheric Modeling
- 用无条件视频扩散模型自监督预训练,学习大气通用先验
- 推理时通过后验采样解决各类逆问题,实现零样本泛化
- 适合气候建模、极端天气模拟等需要快速生成的场景
深度学习已革新天气预报,但气候建模仍面临挑战,且现有模型高度专用、彼此割裂。为统一这一局面,我们提出WIND——一个单一预训练基础模型,可替代多种专用基线模型,且无需任务特定微调。与以往大气基础模型不同,WIND通过自监督视频重建目标进行预训练,采用无条件视频扩散模型从噪声状态迭代重建大气动态。推理时,将多样化的领域特定问题严格建模为逆问题,并通过后验采样求解。该统一方法可应对概率预报、时空降尺度、稀疏观测下的场重建以及全球干空气质量守恒等关键问题。进一步展示了如何在指定分布外热力学扰动下,用WIND探索极端天气事件。结合生成式视频建模与逆问题求解,WIND为基于AI的气象建模提供了计算高效的替代方案。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Deep learning has revolutionized weather forecasting, but many challenges remain, including climate modeling. Moreover, the current landscape remains fragmented: highly specialized models are typically trained individually for distinct tasks. To unify this landscape, we introduce WIND, a single pre-trained foundation model capable of replacing specialized baselines across a vast array of tasks. Crucially, in contrast to previous atmospheric foundation models, we achieve this without any task-specific fine-tuning. To learn a robust, task-agnostic prior of the atmosphere, we pre-train WIND with a self-supervised video reconstruction objective, utilizing an unconditional video diffusion model to iteratively reconstruct atmospheric dynamics from a noisy state. At inference, we frame diverse domain-specific problems strictly as inverse problems and solve them via posterior sampling. This unified approach allows us to tackle highly relevant weather and climate problems, including probabilistic forecasting, spatial and temporal downscaling, reconstruction of spatial fields from sparse observations and enforcing global dry air mass conservation. We further demonstrate how WIND can be applied to explore extreme weather events under prescribed out-of-distribution thermodynamic perturbations. By combining generative video modeling with inverse problem solving, WIND offers a computationally efficient alternative for AI-based atmospheric modeling.
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