让机器学习动态捕捉系统参数变化,提升复杂系统预测精度。
Turning mechanistic models into forecasters by using machine learning
- 从数据中学习含时变参数的微分方程,突破传统模型静态假设。
- 在多个真实系统上实现低于3%的建模误差和低于6%的月度预报误差。
- 适合需要长期动态建模的科研与工程场景,如生态、气候与流行病预测。
复杂动力系统的方程往往无法通过专家知识识别,尤其当底层机制未知时。数据驱动发现方法通过时间序列数据从变量函数库中推断控制方程,但通常假设系数恒定,难以捕捉系统动态演变。为此,我们允许部分参数随时间变化,直接从数据中学习其演化规律,并推导出包含常数与时变参数的方程组。进一步将该框架转化为预测模型:先预测时变参数,再代入方程进行预报。在SIR模型、消费者-资源系统、温室气体浓度及蓝藻细胞计数等数据集上验证,模型在学习时间序列时平均绝对误差低于3%,月度预测误差低于6%。相比CNN-LSTM与梯度提升机(GBM),本模型在多数数据集上表现更优。结果表明,将时变参数引入数据驱动微分方程发现,显著提升了建模与预测性能。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The equations of complex dynamical systems may not be identified by expert knowledge, especially if the underlying mechanisms are unknown. Data-driven discovery methods address this challenge by inferring governing equations from time-series data using a library of functions constructed from the measured variables. However, these methods typically assume time-invariant coefficients, which limits their ability to capture evolving system dynamics. To overcome this limitation, we allow some of the parameters to vary over time, learn their temporal evolution directly from data, and infer a system of equations that incorporates both constant and time-varying parameters. We then transform this framework into a forecasting model by predicting the time-varying parameters and substituting these predictions into the learned equations. The model is validated using datasets for Susceptible-Infected-Recovered, Consumer--Resource, greenhouse gas concentration, and Cyanobacteria cell count. By dynamically adapting to temporal shifts, our proposed model achieved a mean absolute error below 3\% for learning a time series and below 6\% for forecasting up to a month ahead. We additionally compare forecasting performance against CNN-LSTM and Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), and show that our model outperforms these methods across most datasets. Our findings demonstrate that integrating time-varying parameters into data-driven discovery of differential equations improves both modeling accuracy and forecasting performance.
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。