arXiv:2602.04609cs.LGcs.SY2026-02

针对极端天气下电力负荷预测难题,提出自适应神经过程模型。

Resilient Load Forecasting under Climate Change: Adaptive Conditional Neural Processes for Few-Shot Extreme Load Forecasting

  • 通过共享嵌入空间学习历史数据相关性,动态重加权关键信息。
  • 在极端样本稀缺时仍降低22%误差,提升预测可靠性。
  • 适合电力系统应急决策,支持少样本快速适应极端负载模式。

极端天气会显著改变用电行为,导致负荷曲线出现剧烈波动和尖峰。若预测不准,电力系统易出现供需失衡或局部过载,被迫采取拉闸限电等应急措施,增加服务中断与公共安全风险。该问题本质困难在于极端事件常引发负荷模式的突发转变,而相关极端样本稀少且不规律,难以实现可靠学习与校准。本文提出AdaCNP,一种面向数据稀缺场景的概率性预测模型。AdaCNP在共享嵌入空间中学习相似性,对每个目标数据评估历史上下文段落的相关性,并相应重加权上下文信息,从而在极端样本稀少时仍能突出最具信息量的历史证据,实现对未见极端模式的少样本适应。该模型无需昂贵的目标域微调即可生成用于风险决策的预测分布。在真实电力系统负荷数据上的评估显示,AdaCNP在极端时期更具鲁棒性,相比最强基线平均平方误差降低22%,同时达到最低负对数似然值,表明其概率输出更可靠。结果表明,AdaCNP能有效缓解突发分布偏移与极端样本稀缺的双重影响,为极端事件下的弹性电力系统运行提供更可信的预测支持。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Extreme weather can substantially change electricity consumption behavior, causing load curves to exhibit sharp spikes and pronounced volatility. If forecasts are inaccurate during those periods, power systems are more likely to face supply shortfalls or localized overloads, forcing emergency actions such as load shedding and increasing the risk of service disruptions and public-safety impacts. This problem is inherently difficult because extreme events can trigger abrupt regime shifts in load patterns, while relevant extreme samples are rare and irregular, making reliable learning and calibration challenging. We propose AdaCNP, a probabilistic forecasting model for data-scarce condition. AdaCNP learns similarity in a shared embedding space. For each target data, it evaluates how relevant each historical context segment is to the current condition and reweights the context information accordingly. This design highlights the most informative historical evidence even when extreme samples are rare. It enables few-shot adaptation to previously unseen extreme patterns. AdaCNP also produces predictive distributions for risk-aware decision-making without expensive fine-tuning on the target domain. We evaluate AdaCNP on real-world power-system load data and compare it against a range of representative baselines. The results show that AdaCNP is more robust during extreme periods, reducing the mean squared error by 22\% relative to the strongest baseline while achieving the lowest negative log-likelihood, indicating more reliable probabilistic outputs. These findings suggest that AdaCNP can effectively mitigate the combined impact of abrupt distribution shifts and scarce extreme samples, providing a more trustworthy forecasting for resilient power system operation under extreme events.

负荷预测极端天气少样本学习概率建模

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