用深度学习从海洋物理数据预测浮游植物动态,支持短期生态监测。
Static and auto-regressive neural emulation of phytoplankton biomass dynamics from physical predictors in the global ocean
- 采用UNet模型结合环境数据预测全球浮游植物分布
- 短时预测(5个月内)准确率高,长期预测能力下降
- 适合关注海洋生态与气候变化的科研及管理机构
浮游植物是海洋食物网基础,驱动生态过程与全球生物地球化学循环。尽管其生态与气候意义重大,但现有生物地球化学数值模型在模拟浮游植物动态方面仍面临参数化不足、观测数据稀疏及海洋过程复杂等挑战。本文探索深度学习模型如何克服这些局限,基于卫星观测和环境条件预测全球海洋浮游植物生物量的时空分布。比较多种深度学习架构后,发现UNet在再现浮游植物季节与年际变化方面优于CNN、ConvLSTM和4CastNet。使用1至2个月的环境数据输入时,UNet表现更佳,但对低频变化幅度存在低估。为此,引入自回归UNet版本,利用自身历史预测结果进行未来推演,该方法在短时预测(最长5个月)中效果良好,但长期性能下降。研究表明,结合海洋物理预测因子与深度学习,可有效重构并短期预测浮游植物动态,为监测海洋健康与支持海洋生态系统管理提供有力工具,尤其在气候变化背景下具有重要应用价值。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Phytoplankton is the basis of marine food webs, driving both ecological processes and global biogeochemical cycles. Despite their ecological and climatic significance, accurately simulating phytoplankton dynamics remains a major challenge for biogeochemical numerical models due to limited parameterizations, sparse observational data, and the complexity of oceanic processes. Here, we explore how deep learning models can be used to address these limitations predicting the spatio-temporal distribution of phytoplankton biomass in the global ocean based on satellite observations and environmental conditions. First, we investigate several deep learning architectures. Among the tested models, the UNet architecture stands out for its ability to reproduce the seasonal and interannual patterns of phytoplankton biomass more accurately than other models like CNNs, ConvLSTM, and 4CastNet. When using one to two months of environmental data as input, UNet performs better, although it tends to underestimate the amplitude of low-frequency changes in phytoplankton biomass. Thus, to improve predictions over time, an auto-regressive version of UNet was also tested, where the model uses its own previous predictions to forecast future conditions. This approach works well for short-term forecasts (up to five months), though its performance decreases for longer time scales. Overall, our study shows that combining ocean physical predictors with deep learning allows for reconstruction and short-term prediction of phytoplankton dynamics. These models could become powerful tools for monitoring ocean health and supporting marine ecosystem management, especially in the context of climate change.
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