arXiv:2602.04714cs.LG2026-02

提出多时序预测中带约束的弃权策略,提升高风险场景下的预测可靠性。

Bounded-Abstention Multi-horizon Time-series Forecasting

  • 设计三种适用于多步预测的弃权机制,考虑预测间的相关性。
  • 在24个数据集上验证,新方法显著优于现有基线。
  • 适合医疗、金融等对错误代价敏感的高风险场景使用。

多时序预测需同时对连续多个时间步进行预测,广泛应用于医疗、金融等领域,误判可能导致严重后果并降低可信度。学习弃权框架允许模型在高风险时放弃预测,但现有策略仅适用于单步预测,忽略多步预测间的结构与相关性。本文首次形式化多时序预测中的弃权问题,提出三种自然的弃权定义。理论上分析每种问题并推导最优弃权策略,进而设计可实现算法。在24个数据集上的大量实验表明,所提算法显著优于现有基线。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Multi-horizon time-series forecasting involves simultaneously making predictions for a consecutive sequence of subsequent time steps. This task arises in many application domains, such as healthcare and finance, where mispredictions can have a high cost and reduce trust. The learning with abstention framework tackles these problems by allowing a model to abstain from offering a prediction when it is at an elevated risk of making a misprediction. Unfortunately, existing abstention strategies are ill-suited for the multi-horizon setting: they target problems where a model offers a single prediction for each instance. Hence, they ignore the structured and correlated nature of the predictions offered by a multi-horizon forecaster. We formalize the problem of learning with abstention for multi-horizon forecasting setting and show that its structured nature admits a richer set of abstention problems. Concretely, we propose three natural notions of how a model could abstain for multi-horizon forecasting. We theoretically analyze each problem to derive the optimal abstention strategy and propose an algorithm that implements it. Extensive evaluation on 24 datasets shows that our proposed algorithms significantly outperforms existing baselines.

时间序列预测弃权

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