arXiv:2602.04990cs.LGcs.GT2026-02被引 3

心移植分配需考虑各方激励,否则算法可能失效

Position: Machine Learning for Heart Transplant Allocation Policy Optimization Should Account for Incentives

  • 将分配系统视为多方博弈,而非单纯优化问题
  • 数据显示当前制度存在激励错配,影响实际分配效果
  • 呼吁融合机制设计等方法,提升政策抗策略行为能力

稀缺供体器官的分配是医疗领域最具影响力的算法挑战之一。尽管该领域正从僵化的规则系统快速转向机器学习与数据驱动的优化,但我们认为当前方法常忽视一个根本障碍:激励问题。本文指出,器官分配不仅是优化问题,更是一个涉及器官获取组织、移植中心、临床医生、患者和监管机构的复杂博弈。以美国成人心脏移植分配为例,我们识别出决策链中关键的激励错配,并展示这些错配正在产生负面后果。核心观点是下一代分配政策应具备激励意识。我们为机器学习领域提出研究议程,呼吁整合机制设计、策略分类、因果推断和社会选择方法,以应对各方策略行为,确保政策在鲁棒性、效率、公平性和可信度上的表现。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The allocation of scarce donor organs constitutes one of the most consequential algorithmic challenges in healthcare. While the field is rapidly transitioning from rigid, rule-based systems to machine learning and data-driven optimization, we argue that current approaches often overlook a fundamental barrier: incentives. In this position paper, we highlight that organ allocation is not merely an optimization problem, but rather a complex game involving organ procurement organizations, transplant centers, clinicians, patients, and regulators. Focusing on US adult heart transplant allocation, we identify critical incentive misalignments across the decision-making pipeline, and present data showing that they are having adverse consequences today. Our main position is that the next generation of allocation policies should be incentive aware. We outline a research agenda for the machine learning community, calling for the integration of mechanism design, strategic classification, causal inference, and social choice to ensure robustness, efficiency, fairness, and trust in the face of strategic behavior from the various constituent groups.

器官分配激励机制医疗算法机制设计

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