arXiv:2602.05204cs.LGcs.CV2026-02被引 2

提出高效模型exPreCast,精准预测极端与普通降雨

Extreme Weather Nowcasting via Local Precipitation Pattern Prediction

  • 采用局部时空注意力+纹理保真上采样,灵活适应不同预报时长
  • 在SEVIR、MeteoNet和自建平衡数据集上均达领先性能
  • 适合需要实时、高精度降雨预报的气象应用

准确预报暴雨、风暴等极端天气对风险管理和灾害减缓至关重要。尽管高分辨率雷达观测推动了短临预报模型的发展,但降水预报仍因显著的空间局部性、复杂的精细雨结构以及预报时长变化而极具挑战。现有基于扩散的生成集成模型虽表现良好,但计算成本高,不适用于实时场景;而确定性模型虽高效,却偏向于普通降雨。此外,以往研究常用的数据集存在偏差——或以常规降雨为主,或仅包含极端降雨事件,限制了实际应用的泛化能力。本文提出exPreCast,一种高效的确定性框架,用于生成高细节雷达预报,并构建了来自韩国气象厅(KMA)的平衡雷达数据集,涵盖普通与极端降雨事件。模型融合局部时空注意力、纹理保真立方双上采样解码器及时间提取器,可灵活调整预报时长。在SEVIR、MeteoNet及KMA平衡数据集上的实验表明,该方法在正常与极端降雨场景下均实现最先进的准确性和可靠性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate forecasting of extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall or storms is critical for risk management and disaster mitigation. Although high-resolution radar observations have spurred extensive research on nowcasting models, precipitation nowcasting remains particularly challenging due to pronounced spatial locality, intricate fine-scale rainfall structures, and variability in forecasting horizons. While recent diffusion-based generative ensembles show promising results, they are computationally expensive and unsuitable for real-time applications. In contrast, deterministic models are computationally efficient but remain biased toward normal rainfall. Furthermore, the benchmark datasets commonly used in prior studies are themselves skewed--either dominated by ordinary rainfall events or restricted to extreme rainfall episodes--thereby hindering general applicability in real-world settings. In this paper, we propose exPreCast, an efficient deterministic framework for generating finely detailed radar forecasts, and introduce a newly constructed balanced radar dataset from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), which encompasses both ordinary precipitation and extreme events. Our model integrates local spatiotemporal attention, a texture-preserving cubic dual upsampling decoder, and a temporal extractor to flexibly adjust forecasting horizons. Experiments on established benchmarks (SEVIR and MeteoNet) as well as on the balanced KMA dataset demonstrate that our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance, delivering accurate and reliable nowcasts across both normal and extreme rainfall regimes.

天气预报雷达预测极端天气确定性模型

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