用地理信息提升交通预测精度,不增加模型复杂度
Geographically-aware Transformer-based Traffic Forecasting for Urban Motorway Digital Twins
- 引入地理互信息捕捉传感器间空间关系
- 在日内瓦高速网测试中精度优于标准Transformer
- 适合城市高速数字孪生系统中的实时预测场景
数字孪生技术在高速公路交通管理中的运行效率依赖于高分辨率实时交通数据的持续供应。为在交通管理中充当主动决策支持层,数字孪生不仅需包含实时观测,还需整合预测交通状态。由于交通动态具有时空复杂性及时间变化、非线性的特点,高速公路交通预测仍是难题。基于序列的深度学习模型在捕捉时间序列交通数据中的长程时序依赖方面优于传统机器学习与统计模型,但预测精度和模型复杂度仍有提升空间。本文提出一种地理感知的Transformer交通预测模型GATTF,利用分布式传感器间的地理关系及其互信息(MI)进行建模。模型在瑞士日内瓦高速公路网络的真实数据上进行评估,结果表明:通过互信息引入地理感知能力,在不增加模型复杂度的前提下,显著提升了预测精度。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The operational effectiveness of digital-twin technology in motorway traffic management depends on the availability of a continuous flow of high-resolution real-time traffic data. To function as a proactive decision-making support layer within traffic management, a digital twin must also incorporate predicted traffic conditions in addition to real-time observations. Due to the spatio-temporal complexity and the time-variant, non-linear nature of traffic dynamics, predicting motorway traffic remains a difficult problem. Sequence-based deep-learning models offer clear advantages over classical machine learning and statistical models in capturing long-range, temporal dependencies in time-series traffic data, yet limitations in forecasting accuracy and model complexity point to the need for further improvements. To improve motorway traffic forecasting, this paper introduces a Geographically-aware Transformer-based Traffic Forecasting GATTF model, which exploits the geographical relationships between distributed sensors using their mutual information (MI). The model has been evaluated using real-time data from the Geneva motorway network in Switzerland and results confirm that incorporating geographical awareness through MI enhances the accuracy of GATTF forecasting compared to a standard Transformer, without increasing model complexity.
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