arXiv:2602.06097cs.LG2026-02

提出事件优先的风电波动预测框架,提升跨站点泛化能力。

Agentic Workflow Using RBA$_θ$ for Event Prediction

  • 以事件为先,结合频域分解与自适应特征选择建模
  • 实现长时序事件预测与物理一致的功率轨迹重建
  • 支持零样本迁移,适合实际风电场运维场景

风电波动事件因强变异性、多尺度动力学及站点特异性气象影响,难以预测。本文提出一种事件优先、频率感知的预报范式,直接预测波动事件并重构功率轨迹,而非从密集预测中推断事件。框架基于增强版风力波动行为分析(RBA$_θ$)的事件表征,逐步融合统计、机器学习与深度学习模型。传统模型通过事后提取事件提供可解释基线,但跨站点泛化能力有限;随机森林直接预测事件则在鲁棒性上优于生存分析方法,推动全事件感知建模。为捕捉风电波动的多尺度特性,引入基于小波的频域分解、时序激励特征与自适应特征选择的深度架构。所提序列模型实现稳定长时序事件预测、物理一致的轨迹重建,并具备零样本迁移至未见风电场的能力。实证分析表明,波动幅度与持续时间分别受不同中频段控制,仅需稀疏事件预测即可准确重构信号。进一步提出代理式预报层,根据运行上下文动态选择专用工作流。整体框架证明,事件优先、频率感知的预测方式,是轨迹优先预测的可迁移且操作对齐的替代方案。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Wind power ramp events are difficult to forecast due to strong variability, multi-scale dynamics, and site-specific meteorological effects. This paper proposes an event-first, frequency-aware forecasting paradigm that directly predicts ramp events and reconstructs the power trajectory thereafter, rather than inferring events from dense forecasts. The framework is built on an enhanced Ramping Behaviour Analysis (RBA$_θ$) method's event representation and progressively integrates statistical, machine-learning, and deep-learning models. Traditional forecasting models with post-hoc event extraction provides a strong interpretable baseline but exhibits limited generalisation across sites. Direct event prediction using Random Forests improves robustness over survival-based formulations, motivating fully event-aware modelling. To capture the multi-scale nature of wind ramps, we introduce an event-first deep architecture that integrates wavelet-based frequency decomposition, temporal excitation features, and adaptive feature selection. The resulting sequence models enable stable long-horizon event prediction, physically consistent trajectory reconstruction, and zero-shot transfer to previously unseen wind farms. Empirical analysis shows that ramp magnitude and duration are governed by distinct mid-frequency bands, allowing accurate signal reconstruction from sparse event forecasts. An agentic forecasting layer is proposed, in which specialised workflows are selected dynamically based on operational context. Together, the framework demonstrates that event-first, frequency-aware forecasting provides a transferable and operationally aligned alternative to trajectory-first wind-power prediction.

风电预测事件检测深度学习零样本迁移

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