arXiv:2602.06323cs.LG2026-02被引 1

将疫情数据分解为多尺度信号,驱动神经微分方程提升预测准确性。

How (Not) to Hybridize Neural and Mechanistic Models for Epidemiological Forecasting

  • 用趋势、季节和残差分解感染数据,作为神经ODE的控制信号
  • 在5个数据集上RMSE降低21%-63%,峰值预测准确率最优
  • 无需外部变量,可动态推断传播、恢复等关键参数

从监测数据进行流行病预测是难题,将机制性分室模型与神经网络结合是自然方向。机制结构保证轨迹符合流行病学逻辑,神经部分可捕捉非平稳、数据自适应效应。然而,实践中许多看似合理的耦合在部分可观测性和持续变化的传播动态下失效,这些动态由行为、免疫力衰减、季节性及干预措施驱动。本文系统梳理了失败模式,证明稳健性能需显式建模非平稳性:从观测感染序列中提取多尺度结构,作为可控神经微分方程的可解释控制信号,与流行病模型耦合。具体地,将感染量分解为趋势、季节和残差成分,用其驱动连续时间潜在动态,同时预测并推断随时间变化的传播、康复和免疫力丧失率。在早期爆发和多波段场景中,该方法在五个数据集上达到最低均方根误差(相比最强基线降低21%-63%),实现最佳峰值检测准确率,并推断出与真实值一致的时间变率,且不依赖辅助协变量。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Epidemiological forecasting from surveillance data is a hard problem and hybridizing mechanistic compartmental models with neural models is a natural direction. The mechanistic structure helps keep trajectories epidemiologically plausible, while neural components can capture non-stationary, data-adaptive effects. In practice, however, many seemingly straightforward couplings fail under partial observability and continually shifting transmission dynamics driven by behavior, waning immunity, seasonality, and interventions. We catalog these failure modes and show that robust performance requires making non-stationarity explicit: we extract multi-scale structure from the observed infection series and use it as an interpretable control signal for a controlled neural ODE coupled to an epidemiological model. Concretely, we decompose infections into trend, seasonal, and residual components and use these signals to drive continuous-time latent dynamics while jointly forecasting and inferring time-varying transmission, recovery, and immunity-loss rates. Across early outbreak and multi-wave regimes, our approach attains the lowest RMSE on five datasets (21-63% reduction over the strongest default-configured baseline), achieves the best peak detection accuracy, and infers time-varying epidemiological rates within ground-truth ranges, without relying on auxiliary covariates.

流行病预测神经微分方程多尺度分解时变参数

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