arXiv:2602.06429cs.LGphysics.geo-ph2026-02

提出可微水文模型新框架,实现快速稳定参数校准。

Reclaiming First Principles: A Differentiable Framework for Conceptual Hydrologic Models

  • 通过解析敏感性方程联合演化状态与雅可比矩阵,获得精确梯度。
  • 相比数值微分,梯度无步长依赖和噪声,且计算效率更高。
  • 适合需要物理可解释性的水文建模者,尤其适用于复杂流域模拟。

概念性水文模型仍是降雨-径流模拟的核心,但其参数校准常因计算缓慢且数值不稳健。现有基于梯度的参数估计方法多依赖有限差分或自动微分工具(如JAX、PyTorch、TensorFlow),存在计算开销大、截断误差、求解器不稳定等问题,尤其在概念性流域模型的常微分方程系统中更为突出。本文提出一种完全解析、计算高效的可微水文建模框架,基于精确参数敏感性。通过在控制微分方程组中引入敏感性方程,联合演化模型状态与所有参数的雅可比矩阵。该雅可比矩阵为任意可微损失函数提供全解析梯度,包括经典目标函数(如绝对与平方残差和)、常用水文性能指标(如纳什-萨特克莱夫效率、克林-古普塔效率)、对极端事件降权的鲁棒损失函数,以及基于水文过程的泛函(如流量历时曲线、退水曲线)。解析敏感性消除了数值微分的步长依赖与噪声,避免伴随方法的不稳定性及现代机器学习自动微分工具链的高开销。所得梯度为确定性、具物理可解释性,可直接嵌入梯度优化器。整体上,该工作实现了概念性水文模型的快速、稳定、透明的梯度校准,无需依赖外部、不透明或高耗能的自动微分库。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Conceptual hydrologic models remain the cornerstone of rainfall-runoff modeling, yet their calibration is often slow and numerically fragile. Most gradient-based parameter estimation methods rely on finite-difference approximations or automatic differentiation frameworks (e.g., JAX, PyTorch and TensorFlow), which are computationally demanding and introduce truncation errors, solver instabilities, and substantial overhead. These limitations are particularly acute for the ODE systems of conceptual watershed models. Here we introduce a fully analytic and computationally efficient framework for differentiable hydrologic modeling based on exact parameter sensitivities. By augmenting the governing ODE system with sensitivity equations, we jointly evolve the model states and the Jacobian matrix with respect to all parameters. This Jacobian then provides fully analytic gradient vectors for any differentiable loss function. These include classical objective functions such as the sum of absolute and squared residuals, widely used hydrologic performance metrics such as the Nash-Sutcliffe and Kling-Gupta efficiencies, robust loss functions that down-weight extreme events, and hydrograph-based functionals such as flow-duration and recession curves. The analytic sensitivities eliminate the step-size dependence and noise inherent to numerical differentiation, while avoiding the instability of adjoint methods and the overhead of modern machine-learning autodiff toolchains. The resulting gradients are deterministic, physically interpretable, and straightforward to embed in gradient-based optimizers. Overall, this work enables rapid, stable, and transparent gradient-based calibration of conceptual hydrologic models, unlocking the full potential of differentiable modeling without reliance on external, opaque, or CPU-intensive automatic-differentiation libraries.

水文模型可微建模参数校准解析梯度

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