检验大模型交易员策略切换是否符合金融理论，发现其行为仍需改进。
Behavioral Consistency Validation for LLM Agents: An Analysis of Trading-Style Switching through Stock-Market Simulation
- 用提示词设定四种行为特征，让模型长期保持并动态调整交易风格。
- 一年模拟中，模型每10天评估一次策略，实际切换行为仅部分符合理论预期。
- 提出四类一致性指标，适用于验证智能体行为与真实市场心理的匹配度。
近期研究将大语言模型（LLMs）作为代理用于股票市场仿真，以检验微观行为能否聚合为宏观现象。但关键问题是：这些模型的行为是否与真实市场参与者一致？这种一致性对仿真的有效性至关重要。为此，我们选取股票市场场景测试行为一致性。投资者通常分为基本面与技术面交易者，但多数仿真固定策略初始值，无法反映真实交易动态。本文评估代理策略切换是否符合行为金融学理论，并提供评估框架。我们通过提示工程将损失厌恶、羊群效应、财富差异和价格错配四类行为金融驱动因素作为长期性格特征设定。在为期一年的模拟中，代理每日处理价格-成交量数据，按指定风格交易，并每10个交易日重新评估策略。引入四类一致性指标，采用曼-惠特尼U检验对比代理行为与金融理论。结果显示，近期大模型的策略切换行为仅部分符合行为金融理论，凸显其与真实市场心理仍有差距，亟需进一步优化。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Recent works have increasingly applied Large Language Models (LLMs) as agents in financial stock market simulations to test if micro-level behaviors aggregate into macro-level phenomena. However, a crucial question arises: Do LLM agents' behaviors align with real market participants? This alignment is key to the validity of simulation results. To explore this, we select a financial stock market scenario to test behavioral consistency. Investors are typically classified as fundamental or technical traders, but most simulations fix strategies at initialization, failing to reflect real-world trading dynamics. In this work, we assess whether agents' strategy switching aligns with financial theory, providing a framework for this evaluation. We operationalize four behavioral-finance drivers-loss aversion, herding, wealth differentiation, and price misalignment-as personality traits set via prompting and stored long-term. In year-long simulations, agents process daily price-volume data, trade under a designated style, and reassess their strategy every 10 trading days. We introduce four alignment metrics and use Mann-Whitney U tests to compare agents' style-switching behavior with financial theory. Our results show that recent LLMs' switching behavior is only partially consistent with behavioral-finance theories, highlighting the need for further refinement in aligning agent behavior with financial theory.
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