arXiv:2602.07478cs.LG2026-02

用机器学习分析以色列地下水盐化的主因,找出气候、地质和人类活动的关键驱动因素。

AI-Driven Predictive Modelling for Groundwater Salinization in Israel

  • 整合多源数据,用多种模型预测地下水盐度变化。
  • 发现降水、温度、农业区面积和处理污水是主要影响因素。
  • 通过可解释AI揭示处理污水在脆弱地区的关键作用,适合环境政策制定者参考。

全球多地地下水盐化与污染问题日益严重,威胁水资源质量。本研究旨在全面理解以色列地下水盐化的因果机制,识别气象、地质及人为驱动因子。通过整合多源协变量数据,构建基于随机森林(RF)、XGBoost、神经网络、长短期记忆网络(LSTM)、卷积神经网络(CNN)和线性回归(LR)的机器学习预测框架。结合递归特征消除(RFE)、全局敏感性分析(GSA)与可解释人工智能(XAI)中的SHAP方法,评估变量重要性并揭示盐化驱动机制。进一步采用双机器学习进行因果分析。结果表明,降水、温度、距河流距离、距咸水体距离、地形湿指数(TWI)、岸线距离以及农业用地面积、处理后废水(TWW)等为关键驱动因素。XAI分析显示,处理后废水虽具情境依赖性,但在水文气候脆弱区作用显著。该方法深化了国家尺度盐化机制认知,降低模型不确定性,强调需因地制宜制定应对策略。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Increasing salinity and contamination of groundwater is a serious issue in many parts of the world, causing degradation of water resources. The aim of this work is to form a comprehensive understanding of groundwater salinization underlying causal factors and identify important meteorological, geological and anthropogenic drivers of salinity. We have integrated different datasets of potential covariates, to create a robust framework for machine learning based predictive models including Random Forest (RF), XGBoost, Neural network, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), convolution neural network (CNN) and linear regression (LR), of groundwater salinity. Additionally, Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) followed by Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) and Explainable AI (XAI) based SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) were used to estimate the importance scores and find insights into the drivers of salinization. We also did causality analysis via Double machine learning using various predictive models. From these analyses, key meteorological (Precipitation, Temperature), geological (Distance from river, Distance to saline body, TWI, Shoreline distance), and anthropogenic (Area of agriculture field, Treated Wastewater) covariates are identified to be influential drivers of groundwater salinity across Israel. XAI analysis also identified Treated Wastewater (TWW) as an essential anthropogenic driver of salinity, its significance being context-dependent but critical in vulnerable hydro-climatic environment. Our approach provides deeper insight into global salinization mechanisms at country scale, reducing AI model uncertainty and highlighting the need for tailored strategies to address salinity.

地下水机器学习盐化预测可解释AI

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。