arXiv:2602.07530cs.LGcs.DS2026-02

用图压缩方法缩小预测集,保证不确定性可靠的同时提升效率。

Compact Conformal Subgraphs

  • 通过选择最小子图保留指定概率质量,实现结构化预测的压缩
  • 算法在高边密度下实现常数因子覆盖与大小权衡,且可高效求解
  • 适用于路径规划、导航等需可靠不确定性的结构化任务

共形预测提供严格的、无需分布假设的不确定性保证,但在路由、规划或序列推荐等结构化领域常产生过大的预测集。本文提出基于图的共形压缩框架,构建保持统计有效性的紧凑子图。将压缩问题建模为选取最小子图以捕获指定概率质量,并转化为超图中的加权稠密k-子图问题,在子图边密度较高的情况下可解。设计了高效的近似算法,实现常数因子覆盖与尺寸权衡。关键证明表明,该松弛满足单调性,源于与参数化最小割的联系,确保共形保证所需的嵌套性。结果一方面将高效共形预测与组合图压缩通过单调性结合,同时保证统计有效性与压缩效率;另一方面揭示了一个不同于经典稠密k-子图难解性的算法区间,可高效近似求解。最后通过旅行规划与导航的模拟验证方法,对比自然基线,展现优越性能。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Conformal prediction provides rigorous, distribution-free uncertainty guarantees, but often yields prohibitively large prediction sets in structured domains such as routing, planning, or sequential recommendation. We introduce "graph-based conformal compression", a framework for constructing compact subgraphs that preserve statistical validity while reducing structural complexity. We formulate compression as selecting a smallest subgraph capturing a prescribed fraction of the probability mass, and reduce to a weighted version of densest $k$-subgraphs in hypergraphs, in the regime where the subgraph has a large fraction of edges. We design efficient approximation algorithms that achieve constant factor coverage and size trade-offs. Crucially, we prove that our relaxation satisfies a monotonicity property, derived from a connection to parametric minimum cuts, which guarantees the nestedness required for valid conformal guarantees. Our results on the one hand bridge efficient conformal prediction with combinatorial graph compression via monotonicity, to provide rigorous guarantees on both statistical validity, and compression or size. On the other hand, they also highlight an algorithmic regime, distinct from classical densest-$k$-subgraph hardness settings, where the problem can be approximated efficiently. We finally validate our algorithmic approach via simulations for trip planning and navigation, and compare to natural baselines.

共形预测图压缩不确定性量化路径规划

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