用大模型分析信息与疾病传播,揭示其影响因素与演化规律。
Large language models for spreading dynamics in complex systems
- 将大语言模型作为交互代理,捕捉传播中的语义与上下文线索。
- 在虚假信息和传染病传播中,提升检测与预测精度。
- 适合关注复杂系统、信息传播与人工智能融合研究者阅读。
传播动力学是复杂系统与网络科学的核心议题,为理解信息、行为和疾病在系统单元间通过交互传播提供了统一框架。在诸多传播场景中,传播过程受多种相互作用因素影响,如信息表达模式、文化背景、生活环境、认知偏好和公共政策,这些因素难以直接纳入经典建模框架。近期,大语言模型(LLMs)在自然语言理解、推理与生成方面展现出强大能力,可显式感知传播过程中的语义内容与上下文线索,支持对各类影响因素的分析。除作为外部分析工具外,LLMs还可作为嵌入传播系统的交互代理,潜在地影响传播路径与反馈结构。因此,LLMs在传播动力学中的角色与影响已成为跨学科快速发展的研究热点。本文综述了近年来将大模型应用于传播动力学研究的进展,涵盖数字疫情(如谣言与虚假信息)与生物疫情(如传染病暴发)两大典型领域。首先从复杂系统视角回顾流行病建模基础,并探讨基于大模型的方法与传统框架的关系。随后,从流行病建模、监测与检测、预测与管理三个关键角度系统梳理近期研究,阐明大模型如何增强各环节能力。最后,讨论现存挑战与未来研究方向。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Spreading dynamics is a central topic in the physics of complex systems and network science, providing a unified framework for understanding how information, behaviors, and diseases propagate through interactions among system units. In many propagation contexts, spreading processes are influenced by multiple interacting factors, such as information expression patterns, cultural contexts, living environments, cognitive preferences, and public policies, which are difficult to incorporate directly into classical modeling frameworks. Recently, large language models (LLMs) have exhibited strong capabilities in natural language understanding, reasoning, and generation, enabling explicit perception of semantic content and contextual cues in spreading processes, thereby supporting the analysis of the different influencing factors. Beyond serving as external analytical tools, LLMs can also act as interactive agents embedded in propagation systems, potentially influencing spreading pathways and feedback structures. Consequently, the roles and impacts of LLMs on spreading dynamics have become an active and rapidly growing research area across multiple research disciplines. This review provides a comprehensive overview of recent advances in applying LLMs to the study of spreading dynamics across two representative domains: digital epidemics, such as misinformation and rumors, and biological epidemics, including infectious disease outbreaks. We first examine the foundations of epidemic modeling from a complex-systems perspective and discuss how LLM-based approaches relate to traditional frameworks. We then systematically review recent studies from three key perspectives, which are epidemic modeling, epidemic detection and surveillance, and epidemic prediction and management, to clarify how LLMs enhance these areas. Finally, open challenges and potential research directions are discussed.
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