arXiv:2602.08878cs.LGcs.AI2026-02被引 2

用动态匹配潜力优化心脏移植分配,提升整体成功率。

Learning Potentials for Dynamic Matching and Application to Heart Transplantation

  • 基于潜力函数的非短视策略优化,学习未来器官与患者匹配趋势。
  • 在真实历史数据上,显著优于现行美国政策和连续分布框架。
  • 适合关注医疗资源分配、强化学习应用的研究者与政策制定者。

每年数以千计的心脏移植等待者因器官短缺面临生命危险。当前分配政策虽旨在优化群体结果,却常忽视器官动态到达与候补者构成变化,降低效率。美国正从僵化的规则驱动转向更灵活的数据驱动模型。本文提出一种基于潜力函数的通用在线匹配非短视策略优化新框架,该概念源自肾交换研究。我们开发了高维且更具表现力的可扩展、高精度潜力学习方法。本方法属于自监督模仿学习:潜力函数被训练以模仿具备完全预见能力的算法。聚焦心脏移植分配应用,利用真实历史数据验证,所提策略在优化群体层面结果方面显著超越现有方法——包括当前美国现行政策及提出的连续分布框架。分析与方法恰逢美国政策改革关键期,当前心脏移植分配系统正处于审查中。本文提供了一条可扩展且理论严谨的高效器官分配路径。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Each year, thousands of patients in need of heart transplants face life-threatening wait times due to organ scarcity. While allocation policies aim to maximize population-level outcomes, current approaches often fail to account for the dynamic arrival of organs and the composition of waitlisted candidates, thereby hampering efficiency. The United States is transitioning from rigid, rule-based allocation to more flexible data-driven models. In this paper, we propose a novel framework for non-myopic policy optimization in general online matching relying on potentials, a concept originally introduced for kidney exchange. We develop scalable and accurate ways of learning potentials that are higher-dimensional and more expressive than prior approaches. Our approach is a form of self-supervised imitation learning: the potentials are trained to mimic an omniscient algorithm that has perfect foresight. We focus on the application of heart transplant allocation and demonstrate, using real historical data, that our policies significantly outperform prior approaches -- including the current US status quo policy and the proposed continuous distribution framework -- in optimizing for population-level outcomes. Our analysis and methods come at a pivotal moment in US policy, as the current heart transplant allocation system is under review. We propose a scalable and theoretically grounded path toward more effective organ allocation.

器官分配强化学习匹配优化

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