arXiv:2602.09081cs.LGcs.AI2026-02被引 1

DMamba通过分解趋势与季节成分,分别用不同复杂度模块提升时间序列预测性能。

DMamba: Decomposition-enhanced Mamba for Time Series Forecasting

  • 将时间序列分解为趋势与季节成分,分别用不同架构处理。
  • 在多个数据集上超越现有Mamba模型和主流分解方法,达到新SOTA。
  • 适合处理具有非平稳特征的长时序数据,如经济、能源预测场景。

状态空间模型(SSMs),尤其是Mamba,在长时序预测中展现出潜力。然而,现有基于Mamba的架构在具有非平稳模式的数据集上表现不佳。时间序列理论指出,分解后趋势与季节成分的变量间关系统计特性截然不同:趋势关系通常由少数共同随机因子或长期均衡驱动,存在于低维流形;而季节关系涉及相位偏移、振幅协同等高维动态交互,需更强表达能力。本文提出DMamba,一种新型预测模型,显式将模型复杂度与成分特性对齐。该模型采用季节-趋势分解,分别使用定制化模块处理:变量方向的Mamba编码器捕捉季节成分中的丰富跨变量动态,而趋势成分仅需简单MLP即可建模其低维关系。在多种数据集上的大量实验表明,DMamba达到新SOTA,持续优于近期Mamba架构及领先分解类模型。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

State Space Models (SSMs), particularly Mamba, have shown potential in long-term time series forecasting. However, existing Mamba-based architectures often struggle with datasets characterized by non-stationary patterns. A key observation from time series theory is that the statistical nature of inter-variable relationships differs fundamentally between the trend and seasonal components of a decomposed series. Trend relationships are often driven by a few common stochastic factors or long-run equilibria, suggesting that they reside on a lower-dimensional manifold. In contrast, seasonal relationships involve dynamic, high-dimensional interactions like phase shifts and amplitude co-movements, requiring more expressive modeling. In this paper, we propose DMamba, a novel forecasting model that explicitly aligns architectural complexity with this component-specific characteristic. DMamba employs seasonal-trend decomposition and processes the components with specialized, differentially complex modules: a variable-direction Mamba encoder captures the rich, cross-variable dynamics within the seasonal component, while a simple Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) suffices to learn from the lower-dimensional inter-variable relationships in the trend component. Extensive experiments on diverse datasets demonstrate that DMamba sets a new state-of-the-art (SOTA), consistently outperforming both recent Mamba-based architectures and leading decomposition-based models.

时间序列Mamba分解建模预测

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。