轻量多视角方法提升短期负荷预测准确率
A Lightweight Multi-View Approach to Short-Term Load Forecasting
- 用单值嵌入与缩放时间范围输入捕捉时序特征
- 参数少却表现稳健,噪声/稀疏数据下仍有效
- 嵌入丢弃机制提升可解释性,适合工业部署
时间序列预测在能源、金融、气象等领域至关重要,准确预测支持科学决策。尽管基于Transformer和大参数模型近期达到领先性能,但其复杂性易导致过拟合与预测不稳定,尤其当历史数据相关性下降时。本文提出一种轻量级多视角短期负荷预测方法,采用单值嵌入与缩放时间范围输入,高效捕捉时序相关特征。引入嵌入丢弃机制,防止对特定特征的过度依赖,增强模型可解释性。该方法在多个数据集上表现优异,参数显著减少,对噪声或稀疏数据场景具备鲁棒性,并能揭示各特征对预测的贡献。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Time series forecasting is a critical task across domains such as energy, finance, and meteorology, where accurate predictions enable informed decision-making. While transformer-based and large-parameter models have recently achieved state-of-the-art results, their complexity can lead to overfitting and unstable forecasts, especially when older data points become less relevant. In this paper, we propose a lightweight multi-view approach to short-term load forecasting that leverages single-value embeddings and a scaled time-range input to capture temporally relevant features efficiently. We introduce an embedding dropout mechanism to prevent over-reliance on specific features and enhance interpretability. Our method achieves competitive performance with significantly fewer parameters, demonstrating robustness across multiple datasets, including scenarios with noisy or sparse data, and provides insights into the contributions of individual features to the forecast.
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