分析七年间极端社群如何受现实事件影响，发现不同群体反应差异显著。
Triggered: A Statistical Analysis of Environmental Influences on Extremist Groups
- 用反事实合成与因果分析，量化事件对社群行为的影响。
- 风暴前线和主流社区更易受新闻与暴力事件驱动，而男性主义者反应较弱。
- 揭示极端社群非同质，对外部信息生态的耦合程度各异，适合研究网络极化者。
在线极端主义社群嵌入于由现实事件、新闻报道及跨社群互动构成的信息生态系统中。本文采用系统视角，基于两年间两个意识形态不同的极端主义论坛（Stormfront 和 Incels）以及一个主流参考社区（r/News）的七年数据，探讨三个问题：极端暴力事件如何影响社群行为；政治实体的新闻报道是否预示话语动态变化；主流与极端空间之间是否存在语言传播，以及跨极端意识形态间是否存在语言扩散。方法上，结合反事实合成估算事件影响，使用向量自回归与格兰杰因果分析建模新闻信号、行为结果与跨社群语言变迁之间的持续关系。结果显示，Stormfront 和 r/News 对外部刺激反应更敏感，而 Incels 则表现出较弱的跨社群语言影响与较低的新闻及暴力事件响应度。研究表明，极端社群并非同质，其与周围信息生态系统的耦合紧密程度存在显著差异。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Online extremist communities operate within a wider information ecosystem shaped by real-world events, news coverage, and cross-community interaction. We adopt a systems perspective to examine these influences using seven years of data from two ideologically distinct extremist forums (Stormfront and Incels) and a mainstream reference community (r/News). We ask three questions: how extremist violence impacts community behaviour; whether news coverage of political entities predicts shifts in conversation dynamics; and whether linguistic diffusion occurs between mainstream and extremist spaces and across extremist ideologies. Methodologically, we combine counterfactual synthesis to estimate event-level impacts with vector autoregression and Granger causality analyses to model ongoing relationships among news signals, behavioural outcomes, and cross-community language change. Across analyses, our results indicate that Stormfront and r/News appear to be more reactive to external stimuli, while Incels demonstrates less cross-community linguistic influence and less responsiveness to news and violent events. These findings underscore that extremist communities are not homogeneous, but differ in how tightly they are coupled to the surrounding information ecosystem.
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