利用住院期间的PPG信号,提前6小时预测中风,首次实证其预警价值。
In-Hospital Stroke Prediction from PPG-Derived Hemodynamic Features
- 从病历中挖掘真实中风时间,构建高精度预中风PPG数据集。
- 在两个数据集上,提前4-6小时预测中风的F1分数达0.79至0.99。
- 证明被动采集的生理信号可实现早期预警,适合临床实时监测场景。
标准临床数据缺乏院前生理数据,严重限制中风的早期预测,因患者通常在中风发生后才入院,导致光体积变化描记术(PPG)等连续监测信号的预测价值未被验证。本研究聚焦罕见但关键的住院中风队列——患者在持续监测下发生中风,首次实现大规模、精确对齐中风发生时间的预中风PPG波形分析。利用MIMIC-III和MC-MED数据集,我们开发基于大语言模型的数据挖掘流程,从非结构化临床笔记中提取精确的中风发作时间,并经医生验证,分别识别出176例(MIMIC)和158例(MC-MED)具有高质量同步预发病PPG数据的患者。随后从PPG中提取血流动力学特征,采用ResNet-1D模型在多个预警时间窗内预测中风。在MIMIC-III上,提前4、5、6小时的F1分数分别为0.7956、0.8759、0.9406;在无重新调参情况下,MC-MED上对应值达到0.9256、0.9595、0.9888。结果首次提供真实临床数据证据,表明PPG包含中风发生数小时前的预测信号,证实被动获取的生理信号可支持可靠早期预警,推动从事件后识别向主动、基于生理的监测转变,有望显著改善常规临床结局。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The absence of pre-hospital physiological data in standard clinical datasets fundamentally constrains the early prediction of stroke, as patients typically present only after stroke has occurred, leaving the predictive value of continuous monitoring signals such as photoplethysmography (PPG) unvalidated. In this work, we overcome this limitation by focusing on a rare but clinically critical cohort - patients who suffered stroke during hospitalization while already under continuous monitoring - thereby enabling the first large-scale analysis of pre-stroke PPG waveforms aligned to verified onset times. Using MIMIC-III and MC-MED, we develop an LLM-assisted data mining pipeline to extract precise in-hospital stroke onset timestamps from unstructured clinical notes, followed by physician validation, identifying 176 patients (MIMIC) and 158 patients (MC-MED) with high-quality synchronized pre-onset PPG data, respectively. We then extract hemodynamic features from PPG and employ a ResNet-1D model to predict impending stroke across multiple early-warning horizons. The model achieves F1-scores of 0.7956, 0.8759, and 0.9406 at 4, 5, and 6 hours prior to onset on MIMIC-III, and, without re-tuning, reaches 0.9256, 0.9595, and 0.9888 on MC-MED for the same horizons. These results provide the first empirical evidence from real-world clinical data that PPG contains predictive signatures of stroke several hours before onset, demonstrating that passively acquired physiological signals can support reliable early warning, supporting a shift from post-event stroke recognition to proactive, physiology-based surveillance that may materially improve patient outcomes in routine clinical care.
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