arXiv:2602.10412cs.LG2026-02

轻量级时间序列模型增强版,能更好利用未来已知的外部变量。

LightGTS-Cov: Covariate-Enhanced Time Series Forecasting

  • 在轻量级模型基础上加小模块,用残差方式融合历史和未来已知的外部数据。
  • 在电力价格和新能源发电数据上,比原有模型和同类方法更准。
  • 适合需要未来天气等信息的能源预测场景,实测部署效果稳定。

时间序列基础模型通常在多源大规模数据上预训练,但常忽略外生协变量,或仅通过简单拼接方式整合,限制了其在电力价格和可再生能源预测等协变量丰富的场景中的表现。我们提出 LightGTS-Cov,作为 LightGTS 的协变量增强版本,保留其轻量、周期感知的骨干结构,并显式融合过去和未来已知的协变量。基于约 100 万参数的 LightGTS 骨干,LightGTS-Cov 仅增加约 10 万参数的 MLP 插件,通过残差方式将时间对齐的协变量融入解码输出。在电力价格与能源生成数据集的协变量感知基准测试中,LightGTS-Cov 均优于 LightGTS 及其他协变量感知基线,无论是否提供未来协变量。进一步在两个真实能源应用中验证:基于未来天气预报的长期光伏功率预测,以及结合天气与调度计划的日前电价预测。两项应用均实现高精度与稳定的部署性能,证明其在工业实际场景中的有效性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Time series foundation models are typically pre-trained on large, multi-source datasets; however, they often ignore exogenous covariates or incorporate them via simple concatenation with the target series, which limits their effectiveness in covariate-rich applications such as electricity price forecasting and renewable energy forecasting. We introduce LightGTS-Cov, a covariate-enhanced extension of LightGTS that preserves its lightweight, period-aware backbone while explicitly incorporating both past and future-known covariates. Built on a $\sim$1M-parameter LightGTS backbone, LightGTS-Cov adds only a $\sim$0.1M-parameter MLP plug-in that integrates time-aligned covariates into the target forecasts by residually refining the outputs of the decoding process. Across covariate-aware benchmarks on electricity price and energy generation datasets, LightGTS-Cov consistently outperforms LightGTS and achieves superior performance over other covariate-aware baselines under both settings, regardless of whether future-known covariates are provided. We further demonstrate its practical value in two real-world energy case applications: long-term photovoltaic power forecasting with future weather forecasts and day-ahead electricity price forecasting with weather and dispatch-plan covariates. Across both applications, LightGTS-Cov achieves strong forecasting accuracy and stable operational performance after deployment, validating its effectiveness in real-world industrial settings.

时间序列能源预测协变量融合轻量模型

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