用轻量模块增强时间序列预测的长期周期建模能力。
Enhancing Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with Global Temporal Retrieval
- 构建全局时序检索器,动态获取长周期信息
- 在6个真实数据集上均达领先效果,计算开销极小
- 适合需要捕捉长期规律的工业级时间序列任务
多变量时间序列预测在众多实际应用中至关重要,但现有模型受限于有限的历史上下文,难以有效捕捉远超输入窗口的全局周期模式——尽管这些模式蕴含强预测信号。简单延长历史窗口会导致过拟合、计算成本高和冗余处理等严重问题。为此,我们提出全局时序检索器(GTR),一个轻量且即插即用的模块,可扩展任何预测模型的时序感知范围。GTR维护整个周期的自适应全局时序嵌入,并动态检索与输入序列对齐的相关全局片段。通过2D卷积与残差融合联合建模局部与全局依赖,无需修改主模型结构即可有效连接短期观测与长期周期性。在六个真实数据集上的大量实验表明,GTR在短中期与长期预测场景中均持续取得顶尖性能,同时参数与计算开销极低。结果凸显其作为高效通用解决方案,在多变量时间序列预测中增强全局周期建模的能力。代码已开源:https://github.com/macovaseas/GTR。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF) plays a vital role in numerous real-world applications, yet existing models remain constrained by their reliance on a limited historical context. This limitation prevents them from effectively capturing global periodic patterns that often span cycles significantly longer than the input horizon - despite such patterns carrying strong predictive signals. Naive solutions, such as extending the historical window, lead to severe drawbacks, including overfitting, prohibitive computational costs, and redundant information processing. To address these challenges, we introduce the Global Temporal Retriever (GTR), a lightweight and plug-and-play module designed to extend any forecasting model's temporal awareness beyond the immediate historical context. GTR maintains an adaptive global temporal embedding of the entire cycle and dynamically retrieves and aligns relevant global segments with the input sequence. By jointly modeling local and global dependencies through a 2D convolution and residual fusion, GTR effectively bridges short-term observations with long-term periodicity without altering the host model architecture. Extensive experiments on six real-world datasets demonstrate that GTR consistently delivers state-of-the-art performance across both short-term and long-term forecasting scenarios, while incurring minimal parameter and computational overhead. These results highlight GTR as an efficient and general solution for enhancing global periodicity modeling in MTSF tasks. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/macovaseas/GTR.
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