arXiv:2602.11313physics.ao-phcs.LG2026-02被引 3

混合模型在多尺度天气预测中表现良好,但对极端变暖的响应仍有偏差。

Hierarchical Testing of a Hybrid Machine Learning-Physics Global Atmosphere Model

  • 融合机器学习与物理模型的NeuralGCM,分层测试其在不同时间尺度的表现。
  • 在均匀增温3K/4K条件下,全球温升和降水趋势模拟接近传统模型。
  • 对风暴路径和热带外环流的模拟存在系统性偏差,适合气候敏感性研究者参考。

机器学习(ML)模型在天气与次季节预测中展现出高精度和高效性,常优于传统物理模型。然而,其在多时间尺度上的表现、对分布外强迫(如+3K或+4K均匀增温)的响应以及偏差来源仍不明确,制约其在地球科学中的可靠性。本文设计三组实验,分别针对天气尺度现象、年际变率及分布外均匀增温强迫。评估了结合动力核心与机器学习组件的混合模型NeuralGCM,对比观测数据与物理基地球系统模型(ESMs)。在天气尺度上,NeuralGCM能准确模拟温带气旋的演变与传播,性能接近ESMs;在年际尺度上,受厄尔尼诺-南方涛动海表温度异常强迫时,可复现相关遥相关模式,但对非线性响应捕捉不足;在分布外均匀增温下,该模型在平均温度与降水响应上与ESMs相似,并再现大尺度对流层环流特征。主要缺陷包括:温带气旋路径与空间范围被高估,由热带海温异常引发的遥相关波列存在偏差,以及上层升温与平流层环流响应与物理模型存在差异。这些偏差成因被进一步分析。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Machine learning (ML)-based models have demonstrated high skill and computational efficiency, often outperforming conventional physics-based models in weather and subseasonal predictions. While prior studies have assessed their fidelity in capturing synoptic-scale atmospheric dynamics, their performance across timescales and under out-of-distribution forcing, such as +3K or +4K uniform-warming forcings, and the sources of biases remain elusive, to establish the model reliability for Earth science. Here, we design three sets of experiments targeting synoptic-scale phenomena, interannual variability, and out-of-distribution uniform-warming forcings. We evaluate the Neural General Circulation Model (NeuralGCM), a hybrid model integrating a dynamical core with ML-based component, against observations and physics-based Earth system models (ESMs). At the synoptic scale, NeuralGCM captures the evolution and propagation of extratropical cyclones with performance comparable to ESMs. At the interannual scale, when forced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, NeuralGCM successfully reproduces associated teleconnection patterns but exhibits deficiencies in capturing nonlinear response. Under out-of-distribution uniform-warming forcings, NeuralGCM simulates similar responses in global-average temperature and precipitation and reproduces large-scale tropospheric circulation features similar to those in ESMs. Notable weaknesses include overestimating the tracks and spatial extent of extratropical cyclones, biases in the teleconnected wave train triggered by tropical SST anomalies, and differences in upper-level warming and stratospheric circulation responses to SST warming compared to physics-based ESMs. The causes of these weaknesses were explored.

混合模型气候模拟机器学习天气预报

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