高热度讨论常延迟验证,导致错误信息固化成集体认知。
When Visibility Outpaces Verification: Delayed Verification and Narrative Lock-in in Agentic AI Discourse
- 用词法规则和生存分析建模验证时间,发现热门帖验证更慢。
- 热门帖验证延迟或缺失,低热度帖反而更快获验证。
- 适合关注AI安全与平台设计的读者,警示可见性误导风险。
自主型智能体系统重塑人机信任格局。在用户直接接触系统前,公众对这类AI的期待已通过社交平台上的高影响言论形成。然而,平台上的互动信号(如点赞)可能无意间充当可信度代理,抑制批判性评估。本文分析了两个不同互动文化的Reddit社区(r/OpenClaw 和 r/Moltbook)的长期数据,通过可复现的词汇规则识别验证线索,并采用右删失生存分析模型研究“首次验证时间”。结果揭示一种系统性“流行悖论”:无论哪个社区,高可见度帖子的验证时间显著晚于低可见度帖,甚至完全缺失。这种时间滞后创造了“叙事锁定”的关键窗口,早期未经验证的说法在证据调查行为出现前就固化为集体认知偏差。论文讨论该‘可见性即可信’效应对AI安全的影响,并提出‘认识论摩擦’作为平台设计干预策略。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Agentic AI systems-autonomous entities capable of independent planning and execution-reshape the landscape of human-AI trust. Long before direct system exposure, user expectations are mediated through high-stakes public discourse on social platforms. However, platform-mediated engagement signals (e.g., upvotes) may inadvertently function as a ``credibility proxy,'' potentially stifling critical evaluation. This paper investigates the interplay between social proof and verification timing in online discussions of agentic AI. Analyzing a longitudinal dataset from two distinct Reddit communities with contrasting interaction cultures-r/OpenClaw and r/Moltbook-we operationalize verification cues via reproducible lexical rules and model the ``time-to-first-verification'' using a right-censored survival analysis framework. Our findings reveal a systemic ``Popularity Paradox'': high-visibility discussions in both subreddits experience significantly delayed or entirely absent verification cues compared to low-visibility threads. This temporal lag creates a critical window for ``Narrative Lock-in,'' where early, unverified claims crystallize into collective cognitive biases before evidence-seeking behaviors emerge. We discuss the implications of this ``credibility-by-visibility'' effect for AI safety and propose ``epistemic friction'' as a design intervention to rebalance engagement-driven platforms.
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