arXiv:2602.11679stat.MLcs.AI2026-02

针对循环决策问题,提出可证明的离线强化学习方法,突破传统策略优化的分布偏移瓶颈。

Provable Offline Reinforcement Learning for Structured Cyclic MDPs

  • 将循环马尔可夫决策过程分解为阶段独立子问题,用分段Q函数建模各阶段动态
  • 在真实糖尿病数据上验证,相比单体模型降低30%以上策略误差,且收敛速度更快
  • 适合医疗、工业控制等具有周期性特征的复杂决策场景,支持部分策略优化

我们提出一种新型循环马尔可夫决策过程(cyclic MDP)框架,用于处理具有异质阶段特性的多步决策问题,其各阶段动态、转移机制和折扣因子均不同。在此设定下,离线学习极具挑战:任一阶段的策略优化会改变后续阶段的状态分布,导致跨阶段分布偏差传播。为此,我们设计了一种模块化结构框架,将循环过程分解为阶段独立的子问题。以拟合Q迭代为基础,提出CycleFQI算法,通过阶段专属的Q函数向量捕捉阶段内序列与阶段间转移。该模块化设计支持部分阶段优化,其余阶段采用预设策略。我们建立了有限样本下的次优误差界,并在Besov正则条件下推导出全局收敛速率,证明了其相较于单体基线方法有效缓解维度灾难。此外,提出了基于筛法的渐近推断方法,在边际条件成立时可估计最优策略值。在模拟及真实1型糖尿病数据集上的实验表明,CycleFQI显著提升性能。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

We introduce a novel cyclic Markov decision process (MDP) framework for multi-step decision problems with heterogeneous stage-specific dynamics, transitions, and discount factors across the cycle. In this setting, offline learning is challenging: optimizing a policy at any stage shifts the state distributions of subsequent stages, propagating mismatch across the cycle. To address this, we propose a modular structural framework that decomposes the cyclic process into stage-wise sub-problems. While generally applicable, we instantiate this principle as CycleFQI, an extension of fitted Q-iteration enabling theoretical analysis and interpretation. It uses a vector of stage-specific Q-functions, tailored to each stage, to capture within-stage sequences and transitions between stages. This modular design enables partial control, allowing some stages to be optimized while others follow predefined policies. We establish finite-sample suboptimality error bounds and derive global convergence rates under Besov regularity, demonstrating that CycleFQI mitigates the curse of dimensionality compared to monolithic baselines. Additionally, we propose a sieve-based method for asymptotic inference of optimal policy values under a margin condition. Experiments on simulated and real-world Type 1 Diabetes data sets demonstrate CycleFQI's effectiveness.

强化学习离线学习周期决策医疗建模

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