arXiv:2602.11918cs.AI2026-02被引 1

把金融市场看作思想模式的演化生态,用多智能体捕捉投资逻辑变化。

MEME: Modeling the Evolutionary Modes of Financial Markets

  • 构建多智能体系统提取高保真投资论点,用高斯混合模型发现隐含共识
  • 在2023–2025年三个中国股票池中超越7个前沿基线模型
  • 适合关注市场长期逻辑演变与稳健策略生成的研究者和量化从业者

大型语言模型在量化金融中展现出巨大潜力,能处理海量非结构化数据以模拟类人分析流程。然而,现有基于LLM的方法主要采用资产中心或市场中心范式,常忽略驱动市场波动的根本推理机制。本文提出一种逻辑导向视角,将金融市场视为竞争性投资叙事动态演化的生态系统,称为思想模式(Modes of Thought)。为此,我们设计了MEME(Modeling the Evolutionary Modes of Financial Markets),通过演化逻辑重构市场动态。MEME利用多智能体抽取模块将噪声数据转化为高保真投资论点,并采用高斯混合模型在语义空间中挖掘潜在共识。为建模不同市场条件下的语义漂移,还引入时间评估与对齐机制,追踪这些模式的生命周期与历史收益表现。通过优先考虑持久的市场智慧而非短期异常,MEME确保投资组合构建基于稳健推理。在2023至2025年间三个异构中国股票池上的大量实验表明,MEME持续优于七个当前最优基线。消融研究、敏感性分析、生命周期案例研究及成本分析进一步验证了MEME识别并适应市场共识演化的能力。代码已开源:https://github.com/gta0804/MEME。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

LLMs have demonstrated significant potential in quantitative finance by processing vast unstructured data to emulate human-like analytical workflows. However, current LLM-based methods primarily follow either an Asset-Centric paradigm focused on individual stock prediction or a Market-Centric approach for portfolio allocation, often remaining agnostic to the underlying reasoning that drives market movements. In this paper, we propose a Logic-Oriented perspective, modeling the financial market as a dynamic, evolutionary ecosystem of competing investment narratives, termed Modes of Thought. To operationalize this view, we introduce MEME (Modeling the Evolutionary Modes of Financial Markets), designed to reconstruct market dynamics through the lens of evolving logics. MEME employs a multi-agent extraction module to transform noisy data into high-fidelity Investment Arguments and utilizes Gaussian Mixture Modeling to uncover latent consensus within a semantic space. To model semantic drift among different market conditions, we also implement a temporal evaluation and alignment mechanism to track the lifecycle and historical profitability of these modes. By prioritizing enduring market wisdom over transient anomalies, MEME ensures that portfolio construction is guided by robust reasoning. Extensive experiments on three heterogeneous Chinese stock pools from 2023 to 2025 demonstrate that MEME consistently outperforms seven SOTA baselines. Further ablation studies, sensitivity analysis, lifecycle case study and cost analysis validate MEME's capacity to identify and adapt to the evolving consensus of financial markets. Our implementation can be found at https://github.com/gta0804/MEME.

金融建模多智能体演化逻辑市场共识

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