让知识图谱记住过去,持续演化实体状态以预测未来。
Evolving Beyond Snapshots: Harmonizing Structure and Sequence via Entity State Tuning for Temporal Knowledge Graph Forecasting
- 引入持久实体状态机制,避免每次重算导致记忆丢失。
- 在多个基准上超越现有方法,长时序预测性能显著提升。
- 适用于需要长期依赖建模的时序知识图谱任务。
时序知识图谱(TKG)预测需联合建模快照内结构依赖与快照间动态演化。然而,现有方法多为无状态设计:在每个时间点仅从有限查询窗口重新计算实体表示,导致片段化遗忘和长期依赖快速衰减。为此,我们提出实体状态调优(EST),一种无需依赖编码器的框架,使TKG预测器具备持久且持续演化的实体状态。EST维护全局状态缓冲区,通过闭环设计逐步对齐结构证据与序列信号。首先,拓扑感知的状态感知器将实体状态先验注入结构编码;随后,统一的时间上下文模块用可插拔序列骨干聚合增强后的事件;最后,双轨演化机制将更新的上下文写回全局实体状态记忆,平衡可塑性与稳定性。在多个基准上的实验表明,EST能一致提升多种骨干模型性能,达到当前最优,凸显状态持续性对长时序预测的重要性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Temporal knowledge graph (TKG) forecasting requires predicting future facts by jointly modeling structural dependencies within each snapshot and temporal evolution across snapshots. However, most existing methods are stateless: they recompute entity representations at each timestamp from a limited query window, leading to episodic amnesia and rapid decay of long-term dependencies. To address this limitation, we propose Entity State Tuning (EST), an encoder-agnostic framework that endows TKG forecasters with persistent and continuously evolving entity states. EST maintains a global state buffer and progressively aligns structural evidence with sequential signals via a closed-loop design. Specifically, a topology-aware state perceiver first injects entity-state priors into structural encoding. Then, a unified temporal context module aggregates the state-enhanced events with a pluggable sequence backbone. Subsequently, a dual-track evolution mechanism writes the updated context back to the global entity state memory, balancing plasticity against stability. Experiments on multiple benchmarks show that EST consistently improves diverse backbones and achieves state-of-the-art performance, highlighting the importance of state persistence for long-horizon TKG forecasting.
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