用规则约束的多智能体系统,更稳定地预测重症患者长期病情变化。
Vital Trace: Protocol-Constrained Patient-State Reasoning for Longitudinal Clinical Trajectories
- 四智能体协作+固定协议,避免自由文本导致的推理漂移。
- 在MIMIC-IV和eICU上对血管活性药支持等任务预测准确率提升。
- 适合需要可解释、稳定长时临床推理的医疗AI研究与应用。
对电子健康记录中的长期临床轨迹进行纵向临床推理,需跟踪患者生理指标、检验结果和干预措施随时间的变化。现有基于大模型的临床推理系统常依赖重复序列化病史或无约束的文本代理交流,导致上下文漂移、推理不稳定且长时推理成本上升。我们提出Vital Trace,一种针对重症监护室(ICU)长期轨迹的协议约束型多智能体框架,用于未来临床风险预测。该框架不维护无限长度的文本历史,而是采用紧凑的持久化患者状态记忆,结合四个协同智能体——路由者、推理者、审计者和守卫者——分阶段执行推理。为保证时序一致性,引入人工构建的全局协议,包含生理状态转移规则,并设计动态患者状态表示,实时追踪血流动力学、呼吸、肾功能、代谢及炎症失衡状态。我们在MIMIC-IV和eICU数据集上评估了未来血管活性药物支持、呼吸支持、肾功能支持及恶化预测任务。结果表明,结构化的协议约束推理显著提升了时序一致性、通信稳定性、校准度和可解释性,同时在长时程ICU轨迹上保持强预测性能。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Longitudinal clinical reasoning over electronic health records requires tracking evolving physiological measurements, laboratory results, and interventions across extended patient trajectories. Existing LLM-based clinical reasoning systems often rely on repeatedly serializing patient histories or exchanging unconstrained textual agent messages, leading to context drift, unstable reasoning, and growing inference cost over long horizons. We present Vital Trace, a protocol-constrained multi-agent framework for future clinical risk prediction over evolving ICU trajectories. Instead of maintaining unbounded textual histories, Vital Trace uses a compact persistent patient-state memory together with staged reasoning performed by four coordinated agents: a Router, Reasoner, Auditor, and Steward. To support temporally coherent reasoning, we introduce a manually curated Global Protocol containing physiological state-transition rules and a dynamic patient-state representation that tracks hemodynamic, respiratory, renal, metabolic, and inflammatory instability over time. We evaluate Vital Trace on MIMIC-IV and eICU using future vasopressor-support, respiratory-support, renal-support, and deterioration prediction tasks. Results show that structured protocol-constrained reasoning improves temporal consistency, communication stability, calibration, and interpretability compared with free-form multi-agent baselines while achieving strong predictive performance across long ICU trajectories.
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