arXiv:2602.13134cs.IR2026-02

通过模拟用户转化路径激活沉睡用户,提升电商转化率。

Awakening Dormant Users: Generative Recommendation with Counterfactual Functional Role Reasoning

  • 用大模型分析物品在转化中的功能角色,追踪用户意图变化。
  • 在线实验中召回率提升6.2%,订单量增加7.3%。
  • 适合做用户激活和推荐系统优化的工程师与算法研究员。

唤醒长期活跃但转化低的沉睡用户,是大型电商平台实现增量GMV的关键。现有方法多依赖单一阶段的物品内在价值估计(如即时点击概率),忽略了物品的工具性作用——特定互动可触发潜在意图,推动后续决策。为此,我们提出RoleGen框架,结合转化轨迹推理器与生成式行为骨干网络。基于大模型的推理器显式建模物品在上下文中的功能角色,重构意图演化过程,并采用反事实推断模拟多样转化路径,有效缓解兴趣衰退问题。这些推理生成的候选物品被融入生成式骨干网络,通过‘推理-执行-反馈-反思’闭环策略优化,确保行为合理性。在快手电商平台的离线实验与在线A/B测试中,RoleGen实现Recall@1提升6.2%,在线订单量增长7.3%,验证了其激活沉睡用户群体的有效性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Awakening dormant users, who remain engaged but exhibit low conversion, is a pivotal driver for incremental GMV growth in large-scale e-commerce platforms. However, existing approaches often yield suboptimal results since they typically rely on single-step estimation of an item's intrinsic value (e.g., immediate click probability). This mechanism overlooks the instrumental effect of items, where specific interactions act as triggers to shape latent intent and drive subsequent decisions along a conversion trajectory. To bridge this gap, we propose RoleGen, a novel framework that synergizes a Conversion Trajectory Reasoner with a Generative Behavioral Backbone. Specifically, the LLM-based Reasoner explicitly models the context-dependent Functional Role of items to reconstruct intent evolution. It further employs counterfactual inference to simulate diverse conversion paths, effectively mitigating interest collapse. These reasoned candidate items are integrated into the generative backbone, which is optimized via a collaborative "Reasoning-Execution-Feedback-Reflection" closed-loop strategy to ensure grounded execution. Extensive offline experiments and online A/B testing on the Kuaishou e-commerce platform demonstrate that RoleGen achieves a 6.2% gain in Recall@1 and a 7.3% increase in online order volume, confirming its effectiveness in activating the dormant user base.

推荐系统生成模型用户激活反事实推理

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