arXiv:2602.13480cs.CRcs.LG2026-02

首个针对Solana高风险memecoin launch的行為數據集,揭示內部人如何操控價格。

MELT: A Behavioral Trace Dataset for High-Risk Memecoin Launch Detection

  • 提取41,000+個memecoin發行的行為記錄,分類交易、洗售、轉移與鑄造行為
  • 發現平均36.5%代幣由協同帳戶持有,掩蓋真實所有權集中度
  • 提供122個特徵與風險標註,可用於機器學習預測投資損失

發行平台已成為memecoin的主要發行方式,使投資者面臨一類現有撲克檢測方法無法捕捉的高風險發行。我們認為,檢測此類威脅需依賴結構化行為痕跡,即內部人如何累積、協調與退出持倉。為實現此分析,我們提出MELT(MEmecoin Launch Trace),首個針對Solana上高風險memecoin發行的行為痕跡數據集。MELT涵蓋41,000+個memecoin發行,包含2億+筆交易,解析為四類行為記錄:交換、洗售、轉移與鑄造。除單帳戶行為外,還提供捆綁痕跡數據,顯示平均36.5%的代幣供應量由同一實體控制的帳戶持有,這種隱蔽策略可掩蓋真實所有權集中度。基於這些痕跡,MELT提供122個行為特徵與風險級別標註,支持大規模監督學習。我們在高風險發行檢測任務上評估多種代表性機器學習模型。將其預測整合至簡單的memecoin選擇策略後,顯著降低投資損失,證明行為痕跡可轉化為風險緩解手段。數據集與程式碼已公開於https://github.com/git-disl/MELT。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Launchpads have become the dominant mechanism for issuing memecoins, exposing investors to a new class of high-risk launches that existing rug-pull detection methods cannot capture. We argue that detecting these threats requires structured behavioral traces that underlie raw heterogeneous blockchain data, i.e., how insiders accumulate, coordinate, and unwind positions. To enable such analysis, we introduce MELT (MEmecoin Launch Trace, the first behavioral trace dataset for analyzing and detecting high-risk memecoin launches on Solana. MELT covers 41k+ memecoin launches with 200M+ transactions parsed into typed behavioral records that distinguish swaps, wash trades, transfers, and mints. Beyond per-account behaviors, MELT contributes bundle-trace data that links accounts controlled by the same entity, revealing that, on average, 36.5% of token supply is held by coordinated accounts, a concealment strategy that disguises the true ownership concentration from unsuspecting buyers. On top of these traces, MELT provides 122 behavioral features and risk-level annotations, enabling supervised learning at a population scale. We benchmark representative ML models on the high-risk launch detection task. Integrating their predictions into a simple memecoin selection strategy reduces investment loss significantly, demonstrating that behavioral traces can be translated into risk mitigation. Our dataset and code is available at https://github.com/git-disl/MELT.

行為分析加密貨幣風險檢測數據集

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