arXiv:2602.13848cs.LGstat.ML2026-02被引 2

提出一种抗污染的分布漂移检测方法,提升检测速度与可靠性。

Testing For Distribution Shifts with Conditional Conformal Test Martingales

  • 用固定参考数据集替代动态增长的参考集,避免后变样本污染
  • 在有限参考集下仍保持类型一误差控制,渐近检出率可达100%
  • 适合对实时性与稳定性要求高的模型监控场景

我们提出一种序列化分布漂移检测方法,使条件置信测试鞅(CTM)可在固定参考条件下运行。现有CTM检测器通过不断将新样本加入参考集来评估其异常性,虽可实现任意时间有效的第一类错误控制,但存在测试期污染问题:漂移发生后,后续观测值进入参考集,稀释了漂移证据,导致检测延迟增加、功效下降。相比之下,本方法通过设计避免污染,将每个新样本与固定零假设参考数据集进行比较。核心技术贡献在于构建了一种鲁棒的测试鞅,该方法在给定零假设参考数据集的条件下依然有效,通过显式考虑有限参考集引起的参考分布估计误差。这实现了任意时间有效的第一类错误控制,并保证渐近检出概率为1,且期望检测延迟有界。实验表明,该方法比标准CTM检测更快发现分布漂移,提供了一种强大而可靠的分布漂移检测器。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

We propose a sequential test for detecting arbitrary distribution shifts that allows conformal test martingales (CTMs) to work under a fixed, reference-conditional setting. Existing CTM detectors construct test martingales by continually growing a reference set with each incoming sample, using it to assess how atypical the new sample is relative to past observations. While this design yields anytime-valid type-I error control, it suffers from test-time contamination: after a change, post-shift observations enter the reference set and dilute the evidence for distribution shift, increasing detection delay and reducing power. In contrast, our method avoids contamination by design by comparing each new sample to a fixed null reference dataset. Our main technical contribution is a robust martingale construction that remains valid conditional on the null reference data, achieved by explicitly accounting for the estimation error in the reference distribution induced by the finite reference set. This yields anytime-valid type-I error control together with guarantees of asymptotic power one and bounded expected detection delay. Empirically, our method detects shifts faster than standard CTMs, providing a powerful and reliable distribution-shift detector.

分布漂移统计检验在线监测

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